SLD
Contributor
Or put another way, can the war in Ukraine be contained?
I see a couple of ways it might happen.
1) Poland supplies MiG-29’s to Ukraine, and Russia decides that is an act of war, and attacks Poland.
2) Ukrainian success due to Western logistic supplies forces Putin to hit those supply lines in Poland, hoping that NATO will back down.
3) Putin pushes beyond Ukraine and into Moldova and just keeps going, drunk with his perceived success and thinking that the Western Europeans won’t react because of oil and gas needs.
4) Accidentally, such as Russian air incursions in a tense situation result in someone shooting someone down and all hell breaks loose. Pilots do get lost sometimes.
5) Putin, frustrated at battle losses, goes full scale genocide, and the west finally decides to intervene and drive them back.
But perhaps the war could be contained. I think the best case scenario is that Russian losses on the battlefield, and even full blown set backs, may cause the military to balk about further escalation and they force Putin out or a few even pull a Stauffenberg. The loss of three Russian generals, and likely losses of 6000 soldiers (it‘s a lot more than 500) may create such a mindset. The Russians may have to start worrying about the loyalty of their own troops soon. Trust me, war sucks.
I see a couple of ways it might happen.
1) Poland supplies MiG-29’s to Ukraine, and Russia decides that is an act of war, and attacks Poland.
2) Ukrainian success due to Western logistic supplies forces Putin to hit those supply lines in Poland, hoping that NATO will back down.
3) Putin pushes beyond Ukraine and into Moldova and just keeps going, drunk with his perceived success and thinking that the Western Europeans won’t react because of oil and gas needs.
4) Accidentally, such as Russian air incursions in a tense situation result in someone shooting someone down and all hell breaks loose. Pilots do get lost sometimes.
5) Putin, frustrated at battle losses, goes full scale genocide, and the west finally decides to intervene and drive them back.
But perhaps the war could be contained. I think the best case scenario is that Russian losses on the battlefield, and even full blown set backs, may cause the military to balk about further escalation and they force Putin out or a few even pull a Stauffenberg. The loss of three Russian generals, and likely losses of 6000 soldiers (it‘s a lot more than 500) may create such a mindset. The Russians may have to start worrying about the loyalty of their own troops soon. Trust me, war sucks.