Russian Invasion of Ukraine - tactics and logistics

[Copernicus]

Does barbos seriously think that people are buying much of anything he says?

Put yourself in his shoes. Would you be here at all if you were not convinced of your ability to further The Cause for Mother Russia?

Of course a willingness (borne of much practice) to believe absurdities (e.g Ukraine is full of Nazis that pose a threat to Russia) is a critical element to supporting a belief that you’re actually convincing people that the sky is green.

I’m 99.9% certain that Barbos is no liar. He is telling the truth, best as he is able. Which is minimal, due to the same kind of conditioning that makes otherwise honest Trumpers truly believe there was massive electoral fraud in 2020.

I don't know what is in barbos's mind. I think he sometimes makes stuff up just to get a reaction, but people believe all sorts of crazy things. Anyway, being on his ignore list comes with some benefits, since I don't get attacked or provoked as much as I used to and can interact just fine with everyone else. And nothing restricts me from commenting on his posts, which sometimes contain interesting nuggets about how Russians (of his demographic) see things. My experiences with younger Russian and Ukrainian acquaintances is that they take a very different view of the West and of politics. What barbos posts here sound more like those of someone who yearns more for stability than the uncertainties that come with democratic freedoms. He lived through a pretty rough decade in the 90s, and that has shaped his take on things. Like Putin, he seems to have taken the loss of the Soviet Union badly and thinks of what is happening now as a kind of payback for the humiliation suffered earlier.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I don't know what is in barbos's mind. I think he sometimes makes stuff up just to get a reaction, but people believe all sorts of crazy things. Anyway, being on his ignore list comes with some benefits, since I don't get attacked or provoked as much as I used to and can interact just fine with everyone else. And nothing restricts me from commenting on his posts, which sometimes contain interesting nuggets about how Russians (of his demographic) see things. My experiences with younger Russian and Ukrainian acquaintances is that they take a very different view of the West and of politics. What barbos posts here sound more like those of someone who yearns more for stability than the uncertainties that come with democratic freedoms. He lived through a pretty rough decade in the 90s, and that has shaped his take on things. Like Putin, he seems to have taken the loss of the Soviet Union badly and thinks of what is happening now as a kind of payback for the humiliation suffered earlier.

My general feeling is that the Russian population suffers from a legacy of repressive government policy. My father's parents emigrated from eastern Europe along with many other immigrants in the early 1900s. My father often told the story of his mother longing to return to her homeland but she didn't have enough money. Maybe she would have been better off returning. But her children and their descendants are obviously better off in America enjoying American freedoms. They were able to learn and adapt and became comfortable with individual freedom and responsibility as opposed to state control of their lives.

Russians living in Russia can't appreciate the freedoms they are missing. Just because the Soviet Union collapsed doesn't mean that everyone is automatically better off. Russia is a rich land just like America but its people have been disempowered and denied freedom and information for generations. It's no wonder their condition. And that will never end so long as tsarist Putinstan survives.

 

[steve_bank]

Now they are beginning a methodical destruction. Not unexpected.

 

[Copernicus]

My father's parents emigrated from eastern Europe along with many other immigrants in the early 1900s. My father often told the story of his mother longing to return to her homeland but she didn't have enough money. Maybe she would have been better off returning. But her children and their descendants are obviously better off in America enjoying American freedoms. They were able to learn and adapt and became comfortable with individual freedom and responsibility as opposed to state control of their lives.

Same with my father's parents, who immigrated from Poland. They actually tried to go back after WWI and took my father with them. Poland had just become a new independent nation, and they tried to make a go of it. My grandfather had actually been born in the tsarist empire. They couldn't make it work for them, so they came back to America. I'm glad they did, since my existence depended on it.

 

[steve_bank]

It is supposed to be bad form to make comparison to the Nazis.

Putin is acting like WWII Tojo and Hitler.

 

[Tigers!]

With Russian now controlling 2 nuclear plants it is obvious the Russians are trying to cut Ukraine's electricity as much as possible. Does make since. Where would our modern world be without electricity?

 

[Copernicus]

With Russian now controlling 2 nuclear plants it is obvious the Russians are trying to cut Ukraine's electricity as much as possible. Does make since. Where would our modern world be without electricity?

One of the main benefits for them of cutting power is to deplete cell phone batteries, which reduces the number of calls and videos that can get outside to tell the world what is happening.

 

[Coleman Smith]

There’s another thread for “what should US response be, but this has obviously become much bigger, soo I’m creating a new place to ask queestions and discuss the military tactics, logstics and etc.

And I’ll start:

that 40 mile-long convoy of Russians headed for Kyiv - what have they not been bombed to smithereens by now? What logistics prevent it?

I kind of expected the molotov army, at least, to make a move. If not the anti-tank weapons. Are they still on the way and the Ulkrainian army has none?

But perhaps it is too far. Perhaps there is not enough cover?

Anyway, wondering why a 40-mile long, slow-moving thing hasn’t been pestered by guerillas.

To take out a tank you need antitank ballistic missiles or other antitank weapons which they may not have in sufficient quality.

One they became aware of the approaching tanks they should have taken out every bridge in their path.

Molotive cocktails are likely to be ineffective because tanks are usually supported by companion infantry to prevent that type of assault and a molitove cocktail is just likely to burn it self out with out stopping the tank.

My favorite antitank weapons are the A10 aircraft and the sabot.

Ukraine does not have A10's.

We could easily supply sabots.

Here is what a sabot traveling at 3500 MPH does to a tank.

Additionally, antitank mines are cheap and easy to deploy.

 

[SLD]

I’m beginning to think we should strike Putin’s forces in Ukraine. They’re obviously committing gross war crimes. They intend to try to bomb cities into submission and don’t care the slightest about civilian casualties.

They are truly Nazis. The comparison is very apt.

So what would happen if we did strike at the Russian column outside Kiev? B-52‘s are flying right over Eastern Europe as we speak. We have the abilities to knock out Russian invasion forces, quite quickly as a matter of fact. If we did it, really just through air power, and with supplying the Ukrainians with tens of thousands of javelin weapons.

I realize it would be a really significant escalation. But this has to stop, and the only thing he understands is pure force. If we just struck Russian forces in Ukraine, and didn’t go into Russia itself, could it be contained?

 

[steve_bank]

Possibilities of war between NATO and Russia

1. First and foremost nuclear weapons.
2. Serious disruption of European and global economies just when we are getting back to normal from COVID.
3. Europe would likely be hit by conventional missiles possibly the USA.
4. Europe is tied to Russian energy supplies.

I am thinking Putin paused after taking a short step into Ukraine to see the NATO response. It is too late now for NATO to mobilize for full scale war.

Dictators with centralized power can simply order the military to prepare and attack. NATO works by consensus. Technically it is naot a NATO mutual defense issue. The Europeans would have to decide to go to war.

The mistake was not taking Ukraine into NATO as was promised. The European dependence on Russian energy probably factored into it. There is also all that oligarch money invested in Europe as well.

 

[SLD]

Possibilities of war between NATO and Russia

1. First and foremost nuclear weapons.
2. Serious disruption of European and global economies just when we are getting back to normal from COVID.
3. Europe would likely be hit by conventional missiles possibly the USA.
4. Europe is tied to Russian energy supplies.

If we didn’t attack Russia we could avoid #1. The rest we can live with. It is better to deal with him now.

I am thinking Putin paused after taking a short step into Ukraine to see the NATO response. It is too late now for NATO to mobilize for full scale war.

It’s not too late at all. We could mount an air attack quite quickly on their forces in Ukraine. We have the air power close by already.

Dictators with centralized power can simply order the military to prepare and attack. NATO works by consensus. Technically it is naot a NATO mutual defense issue. The Europeans would have to decide to go to war.

The mistake was not taking Ukraine into NATO as was promised. The European dependence on Russian energy probably factored into it. There is also all that oligarch money invested in Europe as well.

The consensus needs to be built and quickly, with Biden’s leadership.

 

[bilby]

We could easily supply sabots

A 'sabot' is a non-projectile packing that allows a small diameter projectile to be fired by a large bore gun.

The use of 'sabot' as an abbreviation of 'discarding sabot penetrator' is bloody stupid; It's the penetrator that's a weapon. The sabot is just packaging.

You might as well say that you like watching shows on a 'styrofoam', because that's what TVs are packed in.

/linguisticPrescriptivism

 

[Harry Bosch]

I’m beginning to think we should strike Putin’s forces in Ukraine. They’re obviously committing gross war crimes. They intend to try to bomb cities into submission and don’t care the slightest about civilian casualties.

They are truly Nazis. The comparison is very apt.

So what would happen if we did strike at the Russian column outside Kiev? B-52‘s are flying right over Eastern Europe as we speak. We have the abilities to knock out Russian invasion forces, quite quickly as a matter of fact. If we did it, really just through air power, and with supplying the Ukrainians with tens of thousands of javelin weapons.

I realize it would be a really significant escalation. But this has to stop, and the only thing he understands is pure force. If we just struck Russian forces in Ukraine, and didn’t go into Russia itself, could it be contained?

Well, your response could be the start of the end of the world. And I think that it's too early. But I have to say, I'm at a loss as to what the world should do to stop Russia. I think that the next step is maybe complete boycott of Russia, including their oil and gas. This means that everyone's gas will double in cost (at a minimum). But I'm willing to accept that cost if it stops Russia. Someone else have a better idea?

 

[SLD]

I’m beginning to think we should strike Putin’s forces in Ukraine. They’re obviously committing gross war crimes. They intend to try to bomb cities into submission and don’t care the slightest about civilian casualties.

They are truly Nazis. The comparison is very apt.

So what would happen if we did strike at the Russian column outside Kiev? B-52‘s are flying right over Eastern Europe as we speak. We have the abilities to knock out Russian invasion forces, quite quickly as a matter of fact. If we did it, really just through air power, and with supplying the Ukrainians with tens of thousands of javelin weapons.

I realize it would be a really significant escalation. But this has to stop, and the only thing he understands is pure force. If we just struck Russian forces in Ukraine, and didn’t go into Russia itself, could it be contained?

Well, your response could be the start of the end of the world. And I think that it's too early. But I have to say, I'm at a loss as to what the world should do to stop Russia. I think that the next step is maybe complete boycott of Russia, including their oil and gas. This means that everyone's gas will double in cost (at a minimum). But I'm willing to accept that cost if it stops Russia. Someone else have a better idea?

Boycotts are indeed a great idea. We can supply Europe with a lot of gas.

However, I think a strike solely on Russian forces in Ukraine could be contained. We could make them realize that they couldn’t continue the fight. We’d do it really just one time, they have stumbled badly into this war and a determined resistance may prompt senior officials in the Kremlin to act against Putin.

The problem for Ukraine is that they haven’t been able to strike back deep into Russian missile and artillery batteries. Those units seem too far from the front line to experience war. Front line infantry aren’t doing so well. They need to knock out these batteries. Only air power can do that and Ukraine doesn’t seem to have much.

 

[Jayjay]

Missile being absent in some frames could be an artifact from the display, camera, or video compression.

No, it can't happen. I thought about LCD screen being filmed. But that can't happen either. LCD image does not flicker. Compression does not miss such large objects without even trace of it, it simply impossible. There is clearly high quality never changing image of the building behind invisible rocket.

At a closer look, I can see just two frames where the missile is not shown (in this video; there may be others around that have different frame rates). If you look at it frame by frame, you can see a shadow appearing where the missile should be in the first missing frame. And the second missing frame is when the missile is already almost at ground level; it could be behind the tree or obfuscated by the dark background. So I don't think the missing frames are a problem.

Second, it's a cell phone video of of CCTV footage converted to tv framerate (cell phones usually have 30 fps, the evening standard video linked here is 24 fps). Lots of steps where information could be lost. Actually interpolated frames would explain why the missile seems faint in one frame.

Third, you already conceded that there was an explosion consistent with a missile. Why argue about the missing frame anymore when you know it's not fake?

Fourth, a faker wouldn't be so sloppy as to miss one or two frames. If anything, in the fake the missile should be more articulated.

If more missiles struck the other parts of the building that would explain the extensive damage inside and on the other side of the building.

No, looks like a single shot to me, left side has trees left.

The left side trees are also present in aftermath. So that side was not hit. But there seems to be also damage on the right hand top corner on the building, and inside the building in the aftermath photos, which I don't think are possible to be caused by this strike, that seems to hit the base of the building.

The point is, that there probably were multiple hits. This video just lasts 30 seconds, it's not a long time between missiles to strike. The subsequent blasts may have happened after this video ends (the original CCTV footage may have been longer, but the later hits would've been partially obscured by the smoke from the first one so maybe the guy who took the cell phone video didn't think think they were important enough).

 

[steve_bank]

Possibilities of war between NATO and Russia

1. First and foremost nuclear weapons.
2. Serious disruption of European and global economies just when we are getting back to normal from COVID.
3. Europe would likely be hit by conventional missiles possibly the USA.
4. Europe is tied to Russian energy supplies.

If we didn’t attack Russia we could avoid #1. The rest we can live with. It is better to deal with him now.

I am thinking Putin paused after taking a short step into Ukraine to see the NATO response. It is too late now for NATO to mobilize for full scale war.

It’s not too late at all. We could mount an air attack quite quickly on their forces in Ukraine. We have the air power close by already.

Dictators with centralized power can simply order the military to prepare and attack. NATO works by consensus. Technically it is naot a NATO mutual defense issue. The Europeans would have to decide to go to war.

The mistake was not taking Ukraine into NATO as was promised. The European dependence on Russian energy probably factored into it. There is also all that oligarch money invested in Europe as well.

The consensus needs to be built and quickly, with Biden’s leadership.

Quickly?

NATO shoud have reinforced the biorders in force as soon as Russia enetrd Ukrainw, and shoud have prepaed for mobilization as soon as Russia began massing troops.

When Hitler invaded Poland he had correctly assessed what the Allied response would be. Weak and unfocused. I am sure Putin has predicted the NATO response. Germnay drgeed its feet on a response. For Europeans to enter Ukarain would require a declaration of war by the states. Will the Europeam citizns support a large scale war in close proximity?

NATO exists to protect NATO members.

If Ukraine falls the trip wire will be crossing a NATO border. The Cold War had numerous incidents where one side began large scale maneuvers and the other side responded.

If the reports are accurate the Russian army is incompetent and is stalled. It may end up in a stalemate.

 

[Elixir]

If the reports are accurate the Russian army is incompetent and is stalled. It may end up in a stalemate.

There is no possibility of a stalemate. Ukrainian leadership values the lives of its citizens. Russian combatants are utterly expendable. Do the math. Ukraine will be overwhelmed and to whatever extent necessary, destroyed.

Trying to imagine any scenario wherein Russia withdraws and goes home …
Can’t see that happening in any way that doesn’t first involve the death of the rat faced bastard that started the whole thing.

 

[SLD]

Possibilities of war between NATO and Russia

1. First and foremost nuclear weapons.
2. Serious disruption of European and global economies just when we are getting back to normal from COVID.
3. Europe would likely be hit by conventional missiles possibly the USA.
4. Europe is tied to Russian energy supplies.

If we didn’t attack Russia we could avoid #1. The rest we can live with. It is better to deal with him now.

I am thinking Putin paused after taking a short step into Ukraine to see the NATO response. It is too late now for NATO to mobilize for full scale war.

It’s not too late at all. We could mount an air attack quite quickly on their forces in Ukraine. We have the air power close by already.

Dictators with centralized power can simply order the military to prepare and attack. NATO works by consensus. Technically it is naot a NATO mutual defense issue. The Europeans would have to decide to go to war.

The mistake was not taking Ukraine into NATO as was promised. The European dependence on Russian energy probably factored into it. There is also all that oligarch money invested in Europe as well.

The consensus needs to be built and quickly, with Biden’s leadership.

Quickly?

NATO shoud have reinforced the biorders in force as soon as Russia enetrd Ukrainw, and shoud have prepaed for mobilization as soon as Russia began massing troops.

When Hitler invaded Poland he had correctly assessed what the Allied response would be. Weak and unfocused. I am sure Putin has predicted the NATO response. Germnay drgeed its feet on a response. For Europeans to enter Ukarain would require a declaration of war by the states. Will the Europeam citizns support a large scale war in close proximity?

NATO exists to protect NATO members.

If Ukraine falls the trip wire will be crossing a NATO border. The Cold War had numerous incidents where one side began large scale maneuvers and the other side responded.

If the reports are accurate the Russian army is incompetent and is stalled. It may end up in a stalemate.

What is happening now in Ukraine is changing the calculus of every other European nation. Everyone expected a quick and relatively bloodless war, a coup d’etat if you will. But what’s happening now is the beginnings of genocide. They are terror bombing cities. This is what all nations vowed not to let happen again after WWII.

and I believe that the consensus can now be changed because of this. Ukraine will not likely hold on for a week or two longer. Kiev and Kharkiv will be reduced to rubble during that time. Starvation and diseases will soon set in. Think Leningrad in 1941-2. Actually worse since the Russians did get some supplies to the city across Lake Lagoda. This is already is shaping up to be a humanitarian crisis far larger than any war since 1945. We have a moral imperative to stop this. And we can. Quite easily actually. NATO air power will throw them back, especially their artillery and mobile rocket batteries that are causing such indiscriminate destruction and death.

 

[Elixir]

NATO air power will throw them back, especially their artillery and mobile rocket batteries that are causing such indiscriminate destruction and death.

Is there any reason to think Pootey will hesitate to use nukes if his conventional forces are obliterated?

 

[Jayjay]

With Russian now controlling 2 nuclear plants it is obvious the Russians are trying to cut Ukraine's electricity as much as possible. Does make since. Where would our modern world be without electricity?

Nuclear plants are also good at stationing troops, because the enemy can't fire rockets at them unless they are insane. That applies to both sides, so denying the plants from the enemy also makes sense, even if your own troops are secure.

Besides, I'm sure you can cut off electricity even without having to take over the power plants. There are transformer stations and other places to do that. If all else fails you could blow up the power lines but then you can't get the electricity back very easily either; it only makes sense as a scorched earth tactic.