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Another Fucking Mass Shooting At US School

Just because there are approximately 19,000 child and teen deaths and woundings in the US per year is no reason at all to think about regulating guns.
 
Just because there are approximately 19,000 child and teen deaths and woundings in the US per year is no reason at all to think about regulating guns.
That is such a small fraction of the number of people who die every year it’s a wonder we even think about it.
 
Considering the fact that well more than hald of those mass shootings were committed by whites, observing that their targets were predominately regions with many black communities is not actually sending the unspoken message you wish that it were...
America is mostly white--if you want to make a case you need to show they are disproportionately white, not that they are mostly white.
 
I think in order to ban something, there should be a sufficient reason. Given how rarely (by comparison) AR-15s and similar rifles are used to kill people, I do not think such sufficient reason is given. The Dems pushing for these bans are operating on emotion, not reason, and are squandering political capital in the process. Political capital that should be used to push measures that actually may accomplish something. I am not against strengthening gun laws. I am against kneejerk banning of certain guns based on how they make some people feel .
I disagree--I think it's more about chipping away at guns by focusing on the ones that can be framed as the most evil. Same thing the right did with abortion.
 
I think in order to ban something, there should be a sufficient reason. Given how rarely (by comparison) AR-15s and similar rifles are used to kill people, I do not think such sufficient reason is given. The Dems pushing for these bans are operating on emotion, not reason, and are squandering political capital in the process. Political capital that should be used to push measures that actually may accomplish something. I am not against strengthening gun laws. I am against kneejerk banning of certain guns based on how they make some people feel .
I disagree--I think it's more about chipping away at guns by focusing on the ones that can be framed as the most evil. Same thing the right did with abortion.
The fundamental difference being that giving abortions to anyone who wants one is a good idea, while giving guns to anyone who wants one is a mindbogglingly stupid idea.

Yeah, yeah, I know. You've got "rights". :rolleyesa:

When your country doesn't grant you the right to painkillers, but does grant you the right to people killers, your country is seriously fucked up, and needs a do-over.

Chipping away at rights that shouldn't exist is a good thing. Not as good as completely abolishing them, of course; But politics is the art of the possible.
 
Given how rarely (by comparison) AR-15s and similar rifles are used to kill people, I do not think such sufficient reason is given.
Let’s look at dead people per gun manufactured, by gun type.
I think that would be a very good idea. However, as with all gun death issues we need to separate suicide from homicide as they have very different driving forces and thus an average is not remotely representative.
....
Looking at homicides I find: Handguns: 6,368 for 2019 (the last year I'm seeing in the table I pulled up). Rifles: 364. Sales for Jan 2019 (reasonably representative, the table is per month): Handguns: 567,970. Long guns (which would include shotguns): 382,090. Since I'm stuck lumping in shotguns I'll go back and add in the 200 shotgun murders for 2019.

Thus for handguns I find 1.12%. Long guns, .148%

The deaths per gun are nearly 10x as high for handguns.

Looking at some ancient data on suicides likewise finds handguns disproportionately represented. (Which isn't a surprise given the difficulty of shooting yourself in a vital spot with a long-barreled weapon.)
 
I think in order to ban something, there should be a sufficient reason. Given how rarely (by comparison) AR-15s and similar rifles are used to kill people, I do not think such sufficient reason is given. The Dems pushing for these bans are operating on emotion, not reason, and are squandering political capital in the process. Political capital that should be used to push measures that actually may accomplish something. I am not against strengthening gun laws. I am against kneejerk banning of certain guns based on how they make some people feel .
I disagree--I think it's more about chipping away at guns by focusing on the ones that can be framed as the most evil. Same thing the right did with abortion.

Besides specific guns like the AR-15, I think a more effective approach might be to focus more on the features that make these guns most dangerous to the public. Even Derec is in favor of banning high capacity magazines, although it appears to be politically impossible to get such a ban past the NRA lobby. If we can ban ownership of automatic weapons, then we can ban other modifications that make guns useful in committing mass murders. We can't stop all murders, but we can chip away at the types of features that make them most dangerous.
 
Considering the fact that well more than hald of those mass shootings were committed by whites, observing that their targets were predominately regions with many black communities is not actually sending the unspoken message you wish that it were...
America is mostly white--if you want to make a case you need to show they are disproportionately white, not that they are mostly white.
I'm not "making a case", just pointing out that Derek hasn't got one. Mass shootings are not, in fact, caused by the presence of too many Black people as he has claimed, unless they are the targets.
 
just pointing out that Derek hasn't got one. Mass shootings are not, in fact, caused by the presence of too many Black people as he has claimed,
I didn’t see that claim. I have see the implication that virtually everything from crime in general to the heartbreak of psoriasis is because of too many black people. But no evidence of the courage it would require to say it outright.
 
just pointing out that Derek hasn't got one. Mass shootings are not, in fact, caused by the presence of too many Black people as he has claimed,
I didn’t see that claim. I have see the implication that virtually everything from crime in general to the heartbreak of psoriasis is because of too many black people. But no evidence of the courage it would require to say it outright.
Yes, and I'm the unforgiveable asshole who calls people out on what they're implying, unfairly "putting words in their mouth" and substance in their arguments.

If I have misrepresented his intent, he's more than free to correct me, ideally by stating much more clearly what argument he was trying to make with his "just leaving this here" bullshit, if it wasn't that.
 
Yes, and I'm the unforgiveable asshole who calls people out on what they're implying, unfairly "putting words in their mouth" and substance in their arguments.
^ Just one of the many reasons I love and respect you. In fact, maybe the main one!
 
Given how rarely (by comparison) AR-15s and similar rifles are used to kill people, I do not think such sufficient reason is given.
Let’s look at dead people per gun manufactured, by gun type.
I think that would be a very good idea. However, as with all gun death issues we need to separate suicide from homicide as they have very different driving forces and thus an average is not remotely representative.
....
Looking at homicides I find: Handguns: 6,368 for 2019 (the last year I'm seeing in the table I pulled up). Rifles: 364. Sales for Jan 2019 (reasonably representative, the table is per month): Handguns: 567,970. Long guns (which would include shotguns): 382,090. Since I'm stuck lumping in shotguns I'll go back and add in the 200 shotgun murders for 2019.

Thus for handguns I find 1.12%. Long guns, .148%

The deaths per gun are nearly 10x as high for handguns.

Looking at some ancient data on suicides likewise finds handguns disproportionately represented. (Which isn't a surprise given the difficulty of shooting yourself in a vital spot with a long-barreled weapon.)
It is not useful to limit “gun type” to long gun vs short gun. And it is disingenuous.
No one has advocated control over all long guns, so your math does not answer the question at hand.

It was fairly straightforward to infer that “number of homicides by AR15 divided by number of AR15s” should be compared to “number of hiomicides by pistol (pick the kind that is most often used in murders) divided by the total number of those guns produced” and could be compared to “number of homicides by bolt-action rifle divided by number of bolt action rifles.”

Then it has meaning. Your long guns v short guns does not, and I will assume you knew that when you wrote it.
 
“number of homicides by AR15 divided by number of AR15s”
… which of course becomes a more and more benign indicator with every new AR sold. Obviously we need to buy a shitload more AR15s to drive that ratio into irrelevance!
 
“number of homicides by AR15 divided by number of AR15s”
… which of course becomes a more and more benign indicator with every new AR sold. Obviously we need to buy a shitload more AR15s to drive that ratio into irrelevance!

I think that a more interesting denominator should be something like "number of AR15s used in reported mass shootings". These guns are selected by mass murderers in part because of their usefulness in shooting a lot of people in a short time, and I think that the statistics will bear that out. Most people who own the guns are never going to commit crimes with them, but that doesn't reduce their significance as a danger to public safety. Most people who own AR15s will never use them to harm another person, but they are still the gun that seems most popular among mass shooters.
 
“number of homicides by AR15 divided by number of AR15s”
… which of course becomes a more and more benign indicator with every new AR sold. Obviously we need to buy a shitload more AR15s to drive that ratio into irrelevance!

I think that a more interesting denominator should be something like "number of AR15s used in reported mass shootings". These guns are selected by mass murderers in part because of their usefulness in shooting a lot of people in a short time, and I think that the statistics will bear that out. Most people who own the guns are never going to commit crimes with them, but that doesn't reduce their significance as a danger to public safety.

Another interesting stat might be the percent of victims who survived being shot with a high velocity low recoil rifle vs all others.
I think that one might be a shocker.
 
The press briefing after the shooting featured:

  • The police chief, the fire department chief, a gaggle of Texas politicians
  • An announcement of the number of dead--9 people, two in the hospital
  • A lone police officer on separate business in the mall heard the gunfire, ran to the scene, and shot the killer dead.
  • Speeches by each politician expressing sympathy and urging prayers. Each got some face time at the podium, identified themselves, and said roughly the same thing.
  • No questions permitted
  • No other information. Nothing about the shooter, weapon, or other details.
The police chief responded to a shouted question as they quickly filed out--the gunman was among the dead. The local politicians are solidly pro-NRA, but they emphasized how safe their community was. The locals appeared not to want to talk about things like type of weapon, age and details of the shooter, how quickly the police officer engaged him after he started shooting.

CNN gave more details--that the shooter was dressed in black tactical gear. So this was a deliberate premeditated mass shooting, and the shooter wanted to survive long enough to kill a lot of people. It sounds like he was "neutralized" very quickly, but he managed to kill 8 people and wound several others before he was stopped. He had what looked like an AR15. A detail that the local officials pointedly left out of their briefing.
 
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