Biden losing in swing states

[Jimmy Higgins]

Swing-State Polling Shows Biden Trails Trump in 2024 Battleground States

Biden has no advantage across key 2024 battleground states, where half say “Bidenomics” is bad for the economy

pro.morningconsult.com

View attachment 44566

I don’t like to be pessimistic this far out. Today’s economic news is good, GDP is really growing. But it is not translating into support for Biden. Inflation seems to have trumped growth, or at least that’s the appearance. Only Nevada seems likely to stay in the Blue column.

Trump remains the Teflon don. Nothing seems to make a dent in his popularity. A conviction won’t make a difference.

I still say that one of the main reasons for this low polling is a basic refusal by the democrats to go negative. Biden trying to tout his economic progress, even if real, isn’t going to make a difference. Instead they Dems need to go on the attack and viciously so. It may turn off some voters, but it will rally the base.

The problem is the US is hooked on Reaganomics and it is starving people economically, even with a decent economy. The GOP won the economic war and the Dems can take the blame.

 

[SLD]

Swing-State Polling Shows Biden Trails Trump in 2024 Battleground States

Biden has no advantage across key 2024 battleground states, where half say “Bidenomics” is bad for the economy

pro.morningconsult.com

View attachment 44566

I don’t like to be pessimistic this far out. Today’s economic news is good, GDP is really growing. But it is not translating into support for Biden. Inflation seems to have trumped growth, or at least that’s the appearance. Only Nevada seems likely to stay in the Blue column.

Trump remains the Teflon don. Nothing seems to make a dent in his popularity. A conviction won’t make a difference.

I still say that one of the main reasons for this low polling is a basic refusal by the democrats to go negative. Biden trying to tout his economic progress, even if real, isn’t going to make a difference. Instead they Dems need to go on the attack and viciously so. It may turn off some voters, but it will rally the base.

The problem is the US is hooked on Reaganomics and it is starving people economically, even with a decent economy. The GOP won the economic war and the Dems can take the blame.

I certainly agree that our problems began with Reaganomics. And Dems refused to reverse these policies. But I’m not totally pessimistic about the future. If Trump can be defeated we could see libertarian economics die a slow but certain death.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Wyoming: 62% urban. Idaho: 69.2%. Alaska: 64.9%. Montana: 53.4%. North Dakota: 61%. South Dakota: 57.2%.

So again.
What do you mean by "urban"?

If your definition of urban includes 62% of Wyoming we mean different things by the word. "I can see a neighbors house from my porch" isn't what I mean by "urban".
Tom

FFS, take it up with the US census bureau. Have you ever even been to Wyoming? To Cheyenne or Laramie or Jackson? They're urban. You might not consider them to be "metropolitan" but they sure as fuck aren't rural.

Yes.
I still have relatives there.
I've also got relatives in Chicago. Calling Cheyenne "urban" would make them laugh their asses off.

As long as "urban" simply means "I can see my neighbors house from here.", sure. Wyoming is urban. For people who live in an 18th floor condo, calling Wyoming urban is more than laughable.

It's why they don't take your opinions at all seriously.
Tom

I think the problem here is trying to divide the world into urban/rural. The world is more typically divided into urban/suburban/rural. The descriptions I'm seeing here for small "urban" places feel more like suburban to me, but there's no urban center they're wrapped around.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

when I'm a poor artsy faggot atheist, in semi-rural Jesustan Indiana.

Perhaps you should have tried attending community college, I hear they have towers of pure ivory.

Be sure and go to a rural one though, I hear "urban" community colleges are dangerous. You know, cause of all the urban people.

WTF?

Just try and find a college that's in the middle of a field somewhere. It should be easy to spot, as there won't be very many other towers around.

My parents used to teach at a college that had fields on all four sides of it--it was between a city and a town. Now the whole thing is a metropolitan area. (Although at the time I'm thinking the city had sprawled across the city line so the town had suburbs/fields/college/fields/suburbs.) I presume it was put out there because the land was cheap.

 

[Politesse]

when I'm a poor artsy faggot atheist, in semi-rural Jesustan Indiana.

Perhaps you should have tried attending community college, I hear they have towers of pure ivory.

Be sure and go to a rural one though, I hear "urban" community colleges are dangerous. You know, cause of all the urban people.

WTF?

Just try and find a college that's in the middle of a field somewhere. It should be easy to spot, as there won't be very many other towers around.

My parents used to teach at a college that had fields on all four sides of it--it was between a city and a town. Now the whole thing is a metropolitan area. (Although at the time I'm thinking the city had sprawled across the city line so the town had suburbs/fields/college/fields/suburbs.) I presume it was put out there because the land was cheap.

That describes our west campus pretty well, it had been an agricultural testing station before it was donated to the school, and it's still all orchards to the one side, not to mention the small orchard and dairy we ourselves maintain over there. But the suburbs have been creeping up on the other side. It is likely that much of the land will be lost whenever houses become more lucrative than pecans.

 

[Swammerdami]

At https://www.pewresearch.org/politic...profiles-of-republican-and-democratic-voters/
are shown the compositions of those who voted for GOP and for Dem candidates in the '16, '18, '20 and '22 elections. Here I just show the 2022 numbers. (Trends can be discerned across these six years. Suburbia grows, but Blue gets their share. The 65+ age cohort grows sharply, but many of the newly old vote Blue.)

These numbers may be confusing. The first number shown is the percentage of all Red voters who self-describe as in that category; the second number is for Blue. (I didn't study the report, but assuming a roughly 50-50 red-blue split among likely voters, the numbers can be treated the other way also.)

. . . . Red-vs-Blue
White 85-64
Black 1-17
Hispanic 7-11
Asian 2-4
Other 4-4

Urban 11-27
Suburban 53-57
Rural 36-16

Postgrad 14-25
Grad 23-26
Some college 33-29
HS or less 29-20

65+ 37-30
50-64 33-28
30-49 24-29
18-29 6-14

Protestant 59-33
Catholic 21-17
Unaffiliated 14-39
Other 6-10

 

[SLD]

At https://www.pewresearch.org/politic...profiles-of-republican-and-democratic-voters/
are shown the compositions of those who voted for GOP and for Dem candidates in the '16, '18, '20 and '22 elections. Here I just show the 2022 numbers. (Trends can be discerned across these six years. Suburbia grows, but Blue gets their share. The 65+ age cohort grows sharply, but many of the newly old vote Blue.)

These numbers may be confusing. The first number shown is the percentage of all Red voters who self-describe as in that category; the second number is for Blue. (I didn't study the report, but assuming a roughly 50-50 red-blue split among likely voters, the numbers can be treated the other way also.)

. . . . Red-vs-Blue
White 85-64
Black 1-17
Hispanic 7-11
Asian 2-4
Other 4-4

Urban 11-27
Suburban 53-57
Rural 36-16

Postgrad 14-25
Grad 23-26
Some college 33-29
HS or less 29-20

65+ 37-30
50-64 33-28
30-49 24-29
18-29 6-14

Protestant 59-33
Catholic 21-17
Unaffiliated 14-39
Other 6-10

illustrates the real problem. Religion. It really does poison everything.

 

[Swammerdami]

. . . . Red-vs-Blue


Protestant 59-33
Catholic 21-17
Unaffiliated 14-39
Other 6-10

illustrates the real problem. Religion. It really does poison everything.

Huge exaggeration. Note that about 45% of Catholics vote Blue. And of course most U.S. Muslims will align with the Blues.

It is interesting to see what the top correlations have been over time, for Demo -vs- GOP voting.
IIRC in much of the 20th century, voting tended to correlate with career and income: "white-collar" voted Red, "blue-collar" Blue. About 20 or 30 years ago, religious "devotion" was a strong correlate: regular church-goers voted Red, non-goers Blue. Education is a major correlate today: the uneducated vote Red, PhDs Blue.

Although I didn't notice a graph on the Pew Research page I sourced, gender is a big correlate today. Women tend to vote Blue. Without women's suffrage the Reds would win every election in a landslide.

 

[Emily Lake]

when I'm a poor artsy faggot atheist, in semi-rural Jesustan Indiana.

Perhaps you should have tried attending community college, I hear they have towers of pure ivory.

Be sure and go to a rural one though, I hear "urban" community colleges are dangerous. You know, cause of all the urban people.

WTF?

Just try and find a college that's in the middle of a field somewhere. It should be easy to spot, as there won't be very many other towers around.

WTF?

Poli has taken umbrage at being called an ivory tower academic. Somehow he has confused this term, which references his viewpoints and their complete lack of any relation to the real world, with some very literal assumption of the tower-dwelling nobility that are so very commonplace these days...

 

[Emily Lake]

Godfuckingdammitalltohell.

I don't want Biden, but I sure as hell don't want Trump either. Both of these parties need to be burned to the ground and started over from scratch.

What's wrong with Biden?

He's ancient, and his mind is going. Every time the man talks in public, it's obvious he doesn't have a clue what's going on around him. I haven't heard him actually answer a question in a couple of years now.

Reagan's dementia was much better disguised than Biden's.

 

[Emily Lake]

Sorry, that's not what I mean by "urban". I live in a county with around 70,000 residents and I don't consider it urban.

There's no y'all about it, Toni freaking hates the way I describe rural life and rural people. But the terms mean what they do.

Toni isn't alone. I detest the dripping scorn and hatred that you use to deride and dehumanize people who don't meet your political purity test. Including anyone who doesn't live in a densely populated city, or who has the gall to live in the part of the country that produces all the food you eat.

Have you ever been to a small town and actually talked to people. People in rural areas also have dripping scorn for liberal city folk. I've traveled all over my state in my delivery job. I've been told so many times that people would never come to the city I live in because there is too many "black people." Both my older brothers live in rural areas. They cannot let their liberal views be known without risking violence. My one brother did it once and was physically attacked for doing so. I cannot imagine what it would be like for an openly gay man to try to walk into a bar and order a drink in those places.

I have not only been to a small town, I've lived in a small town. Repeatedly. I've run across racist behavior in small towns. I've also run across racist behavior in large cities - often more blatant. I've run across homophobia in small towns. I've also run across homophobia in large cities, often much more blatant.

My observation is that humans are pretty much as likely to be assholes no matter where they live. The only difference is that in a city - where 99% of the people are faceless strangers to you - it's a lot easier to surround yourself with only like-minded people, and therefore pretend like nobody else exists. It's easy in a city to find a group of open-minded people who give not fucks about your skin color or your sexual orientation... and to only ever interact with them. But they don't make up a larger proportion of the population of cities than they do of small towns. And if you end up in the wrong group of people or the wrong neighborhood in a city, being an openly gay man is just as dangerous if not more so. More hate-motivated attacks occur in urban areas than in rural ones.

 

[Emily Lake]

Toni isn't alone. I detest the dripping scorn and hatred that you use to deride and dehumanize people who don't meet your political purity test. Including anyone who doesn't live in a densely populated city, or who has the gall to live in the part of the country that produces all the food you eat.

Well, for what its worth you're wrong about that. I have considerable pride of place. Even pride of people. But that doesn't mean turning a blind eye to the terror that "Trump Country" is prepared to unleash on the world, and was long before Trump seized control of their contingent. I love the people of the San Joaquin Valley, have dedicated my life to helping them. But helping them means helping them get out, if they're able to. To stay and change things, if they're able and willing. To borrow a phrasing from the book they claim to hold holy, white nationalism is a broken rod, and it will produce only bitter fruit. Almonds aren't going to save this country, and fascism certainly will not, but people still could.

Sure, sure, that sentence there totally demonstrates how you absolutely don't drip scorn and hatred for rural people, you totally don't assume they're malicious evil bigots and the root of all ills. Nope. Not at all. You totally come off as having equal respect for people in rural areas, and view them with just as much compassion and humanity as you have for urbanites.

 

[Politesse]

Toni isn't alone. I detest the dripping scorn and hatred that you use to deride and dehumanize people who don't meet your political purity test. Including anyone who doesn't live in a densely populated city, or who has the gall to live in the part of the country that produces all the food you eat.

Well, for what its worth you're wrong about that. I have considerable pride of place. Even pride of people. But that doesn't mean turning a blind eye to the terror that "Trump Country" is prepared to unleash on the world, and was long before Trump seized control of their contingent. I love the people of the San Joaquin Valley, have dedicated my life to helping them. But helping them means helping them get out, if they're able to. To stay and change things, if they're able and willing. To borrow a phrasing from the book they claim to hold holy, white nationalism is a broken rod, and it will produce only bitter fruit. Almonds aren't going to save this country, and fascism certainly will not, but people still could.

Sure, sure, that sentence there totally demonstrates how you absolutely don't drip scorn and hatred for rural people, you totally don't assume they're malicious evil bigots and the root of all ills. Nope. Not at all. You totally come off as having equal respect for people in rural areas, and view them with just as much compassion and humanity as you have for urbanites.

Well, yes. I'm not sure you have actually met the people you're defending, if you think they'd be offended to be called Trump Country, or cry because their political activities scared a "Lib".

 

[Politesse]

when I'm a poor artsy faggot atheist, in semi-rural Jesustan Indiana.

Perhaps you should have tried attending community college, I hear they have towers of pure ivory.

Be sure and go to a rural one though, I hear "urban" community colleges are dangerous. You know, cause of all the urban people.

WTF?

Just try and find a college that's in the middle of a field somewhere. It should be easy to spot, as there won't be very many other towers around.

WTF?

Poli has taken umbrage at being called an ivory tower academic. Somehow he has confused this term, which references his viewpoints and their complete lack of any relation to the real world, with some very literal assumption of the tower-dwelling nobility that are so very commonplace these days...

I haven't taken umbrage, I'm laughing my ass off. If there's a polar opposite to an "ivory tower", it's the place where I work (and I'm fine with that).

 

[Elixir]

I am rural people. In my rural area there are lot of rural people who have few fux to give about politics, as they’re too busy trying to keep afloat. They’ll vote for Trump, mostly.
It’s frustrating because it’s not even that they don’t want to know what a scumbag Trump is, it’s that the RW machine has convinced them that BOTH SIDES are totally and equally corrupt and dangerous. Dems have a long row to hoe to convert such people, such is the depth of damage already done.
So I am grateful for the fact that Colorado’s increasingly urban population has helped render CO blue, if still purple tinged. So sue me.

That I tend to “look down on” some rural people for their political ignorance doesn’t preclude me looking up to those same people for earth moving, financial, veterinary or other advice. I assume they view me as reciprocally ignorant about the stuff they know way more of than I do.

 

[ZiprHead]

More hate-motivated attacks occur in urban areas than in rural ones.

That may be so. I don't know. But I'd bet money it's because many gay people get the hell out of rural areas as fast as they can when they are able. It's hard to attack gay folks when there's none around.

Movement Advancement Project | Rural

The Movement Advancement Project released a new report, Where We Call Home: LGBT People in Rural America. Released in partnership with the Equality Federation, the National Black Justice Coalition, and the National Center for Lesbian Rights, the report examines the structural differences in...

www.lgbtmap.org

Popular culture images of LGBT people suggest that most LGBT people live in cities or on the coasts. Yet an estimated three million or more LGBT people call rural America home. The Movement Advancement Project released a new report, Where We Call Home: LGBT People in Rural America, which examines the structural differences in rural life and their unique impact on LGBT people in rural areas, who are both more vulnerable to discrimination and less able to respond to its harmful effects.

Among other challenges, rural LGBT people are less likely to have explicit nondiscrimination protections, are more likely to live in areas with religious exemption laws that may allow service providers to discriminate, and have fewer alternatives when facing discrimination, as detailed in a new report released today. Although LGBT people in rural areas face many of the same challenges as their neighbors, they experience different consequences, and the many structural challenges of living in rural communities can often amplify LGBT people’s experiences of both acceptance and rejection.

The report has three key sections, examining how many LGBT people live in rural areas and why they live there; the experiences of LGBT people living in rural communities; and the social and political landscape in rural America. The report also offers a robust set of recommendations for improving the lives of all rural residents, including LGBT people.

Much more at the website.

 

[ZiprHead]

Godfuckingdammitalltohell.

I don't want Biden, but I sure as hell don't want Trump either. Both of these parties need to be burned to the ground and started over from scratch.

What's wrong with Biden?

He's ancient, and his mind is going. Every time the man talks in public, it's obvious he doesn't have a clue what's going on around him. I haven't heard him actually answer a question in a couple of years now.

Can you point out a recent Biden gaff that shows his mind is going?

And how does it compare to this by Trump?



And this doozy...

 

[Toni]

Sorry, that's not what I mean by "urban". I live in a county with around 70,000 residents and I don't consider it urban.

There's no y'all about it, Toni freaking hates the way I describe rural life and rural people. But the terms mean what they do.

Toni isn't alone. I detest the dripping scorn and hatred that you use to deride and dehumanize people who don't meet your political purity test. Including anyone who doesn't live in a densely populated city, or who has the gall to live in the part of the country that produces all the food you eat.

Have you ever been to a small town and actually talked to people. People in rural areas also have dripping scorn for liberal city folk. I've traveled all over my state in my delivery job. I've been told so many times that people would never come to the city I live in because there is too many "black people." Both my older brothers live in rural areas. They cannot let their liberal views be known without risking violence. My one brother did it once and was physically attacked for doing so. I cannot imagine what it would be like for an openly gay man to try to walk into a bar and order a drink in those places.

I have not only been to a small town, I've lived in a small town. Repeatedly. I've run across racist behavior in small towns. I've also run across racist behavior in large cities - often more blatant. I've run across homophobia in small towns. I've also run across homophobia in large cities, often much more blatant.

My observation is that humans are pretty much as likely to be assholes no matter where they live. The only difference is that in a city - where 99% of the people are faceless strangers to you - it's a lot easier to surround yourself with only like-minded people, and therefore pretend like nobody else exists. It's easy in a city to find a group of open-minded people who give not fucks about your skin color or your sexual orientation... and to only ever interact with them. But they don't make up a larger proportion of the population of cities than they do of small towns. And if you end up in the wrong group of people or the wrong neighborhood in a city, being an openly gay man is just as dangerous if not more so. More hate-motivated attacks occur in urban areas than in rural ones.

I agree with this, except for the part about people being 99% assholes. I think most people are at least largely good, but we all have plenty of faults.

In a small town or city, you cannot isolate yourself completely from any group. In my small town, there are multiple millionaires ( as in, a yearly bonus will exceed $1M, at least one billionaire and a whole lo t of people who need to use the food shelf, struggle to make rent and to keep utilities on. We have doctors and layers and college professors. We have bankers and businessmen. We have factory workers and mechanics. We have plumbers, and contractors and electricians and carpenters. And murderers, rapists, drug dealers, thieves, plenty of alcoholics and all kinds of addicts, child abusers, domestic partner abusers. Ministers and priests. Artists and musicians. You name it: we have it. And my kids attended public schools right alongside the children of all those people. Virtually 100% of whom are white. But lots of economic diversity.

You are absolutely correct that racism and homophobia exist in small towns and in large cities. Also suburbia, and rural areas. In every single country in the world.

 

[SLD]

So now another poll from the NYT also shows Trump surging past Biden in key swing states.

Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena Poll Finds

Voters in battleground states said they trusted Donald J. Trump over President Biden on the economy, foreign policy and immigration, as Mr. Biden’s multiracial base shows signs of fraying.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Politesse]

People really are stupid as hell aren't they.