I'm sure I seem like Princess Cassandra of Troy (or like Chicken Little crying that the sky is falling). But the situation is extremely dire. I can't believe that not everyone is talking about the impending catastrophe, nor are sane GOP leaders trying to save American democracy.
Polymarket now shows Trump at 59% vs Biden's 35% to win the White House. That's right, a 24% lead. Some "good news", perhaps, is that various other Democrats have a collective 7% chance, while among other non-Republicans only RFK Jr. is shown with as much as 1%. If you think these numbers are ridiculously wrong, you can create a Polymarket account, bet against Trump up to a million dollars or more and more than double your money if he loses. Betfair's numbers are somewhat less pessimistic: 52½% vs 35½%.
Are Nate Silver's predictions more reliable estimates than the numbers seen at betting markets? I dunno, but Mr. Silver's predictions are apparently only available to paid subscribers of the Silver Bulletin.
I would be very skeptical of the betting site that gives Trump a nearly 2/3 lock on the election given his past performances. He lost the popular vote in both 2016 and 2020, never rose above a 50% approval rating while in office, and while his party didn't entirely lose the 2022 mid-terms, the predicted "red wave" failed to materialize. What's more, his hand-picked candidates in contested races mostly lost. Trump has a very energized base, but as we learned in 2022, what wins in the primary does not always win in the general.
Right now we're seeing Trump repeat the strategy of playing to his base, and just barely (according to a story I heard on NPR earlier this morning) moderating his positions on things like a national abortion ban in order to "move to the center." That may be too little, too late.
As far as predictive models, I'd reference the
"Keys to the White House" as developed by Allan Lichtman and Vladimir Keilis-Borok. We're still waiting for the former to make his official prediction, but he's accurately predicted the outcome of every election - save the disputed 2000 one - since 1984.
There are a few that lean against Biden, and a few that are toss-ups, but it's not looking like a guaranteed Trump win by any measure.
1. Party mandate: Right now the GOP holds a narrow lead in the House, so that goes to Trump.
2. No primary contest: There was no serious doubt that both would win this, so that's a wash.
3. Incumbent seeking re-election: Arguably a toss-up since Biden is the sitting President, but Trump is that very rare animal who comes back after losing the White House.
4. No third party: RFK Jr. isn't exactly Ross Perot. He's more like John Anderson, and he's taking more votes from Trump than Biden.
5. Strong short-term economy: By every measure except inflation, the US economy is very strong. As James Carville said over 30 years ago, "it's the economy, stupid."
6. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Biden for the win.
7. Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. Biden has been the epitome of "slow and steady wins the race."
8. No social unrest: Yes, there's protests against the Gaza ethnic cleansing, but it is limited to college campuses and not widespread unrest in major cities like in 2020.
9. No scandal: Despite their best efforts, the "Hunter Biden's Laptop" thing fizzled for the GOP, and the President refused to let his son off the hook. Another win.
10. No foreign/military failure: As much as I hate to say it, Biden's steadfast support of Israel is a winner. Likewise, abandoning Ukraine is not a winner for Trump.
11. Major foreign/military success: See above. Also, Trump has promised to resume his policy of trade wars with...well...everyone. Not a winner for Trump.
12. Charismatic incumbent: I don't think anyone has accused Joe Biden of being charismatic. This is arguably a win for Trump, but then again...
13. Uncharismatic challenger: The mainstream media has finally begun to pick up on Trump's erratic behavior. His long-winded rant on electric boats and sharks comes to mind. The debate will be interesting to watch. The rules seem to favor Biden. Trump will have no crowd to play off of, and his penchant for going off on long rants could come up hard against a moderator with a "mute" button. If he's cut off mid-waxing poetic, it may enrage him and throw him off his game even more. I'm guessing Biden's team are approaching this with the knowledge that Trump hasn't been challenged directly and in person for the last 4 years. He skipped the GOP primary debates, and has only held rallies and sat down for softball interview by fawning "journalists." When he was cornered in a court room (though he didn't testify), Trump was sullen and "low energy" until he got in front of the cameras outside the court.
On balance, the Keys seem to favor Biden fairly convincingly. What's not factored into the above (understantably) is the question of "is the challenger a convicted felon with 3 more felony trials in progress?" Yeah, folks at the Trump rallies are sporting "I'm voting for the felon" t-shirts, but then...how many independent voters in swing states are willing to say the same?