The Race For 2024

[barbos]

Now, why do you have debates before conventions? What's the purpose of that?

How are the Presidential debates in Russia working out for you?

Why do you have debates before conventions? What's the purpose of that?

Answering a question by repeating a previously asked question? Is this some Soviet-style Socrates?

I had no intention to answer irrelevant to the topic question.
Why do you have debates before conventions? What's the purpose of that?

It is actually quite unusual to have a presidential debate so early in the season, or for that matter to have only two, or for it to be hosted directly by a media company rather than a bipartisan organization. But the candidates in this particular election were chosen for us more than a year ago, there's nothing for the public to weigh over or consider except which Party will suffer more from lack of voter enthusiasm. So I guess they're just trying to get it out of the way. Even the candidates are bored with the theater of the electoral process.

Unusual? has it ever been done before?

 

[Swammerdami]

I'm sure I seem like Princess Cassandra of Troy (or like Chicken Little crying that the sky is falling). But the situation is extremely dire. I can't believe that not everyone is talking about the impending catastrophe, nor are sane GOP leaders trying to save American democracy.

Polymarket now shows Trump at 59% vs Biden's 35% to win the White House. That's right, a 24% lead. Some "good news", perhaps, is that various other Democrats have a collective 7% chance, while among other non-Republicans only RFK Jr. is shown with as much as 1%. If you think these numbers are ridiculously wrong, you can create a Polymarket account, bet against Trump up to a million dollars or more and more than double your money if he loses. Betfair's numbers are somewhat less pessimistic: 52½% vs 35½%.

Are Nate Silver's predictions more reliable estimates than the numbers seen at betting markets? I dunno, but Mr. Silver's predictions are apparently only available to paid subscribers of the Silver Bulletin.

 

[Politesse]

I'm sure I seem like Princess Cassandra of Troy (or like Chicken Little crying that the sky is falling).

It is. I'm not sure what action can be taken, though. Trump will probably win in November. If he doesn't, he or someone very much like him will win in four year's time. Either way, I'm preparing for the fights to come. As long as heavily racialized Christian theocracy is winning elections for the Republicans, they aren't going to stop trying. If it stops working, they'll burrow underground for a few decades before trying again. But they've no reason to do that right now, and they will never altogether give up. Something close to half the country either wants the coming authoritarian state or is too apathetic to cast a vote against it, and much of the world is in the same boat, with dictators and far right wing politics seizing the reins of a great many polities around the planet. Or as in the case of the Democrats, allowing themselves to be pulled toward the right by the same tide.

Do people want to live under a dictator? No, I do not think they do. I don't think they'll be happy with the prize they've won. But they are less afraid of dictatorship than they are of neighbors who speak a different language, or of science being taught at school, or of their finding their son wearing a dress at play time. And in a representative democracy, that fear is all you need to squeeze out an electoral victory for a populist. I do not think the situation is hopeless exactly, but I do not think a close win for Biden will be a sufficient balm to stamp out this mass movement toward autocracy. We must prepare to fight what is coming, by whatever means or timetable it will arrive. Panicking accomplishes nothing; it's time for exercise, and whatever spiritual food gives you the strength to perservere through difficult times (and to not give a fucking inch to those who demand a mile that they never earned).

 

[Derec]

Mr James Garfield would like to lodge an objection.

(I wonder whether Trump would recognize the name?)

Oh, he recognizes the name. He just thinks it's a cat who likes lasagna ...

 

[Ford]

I'm sure I seem like Princess Cassandra of Troy (or like Chicken Little crying that the sky is falling). But the situation is extremely dire. I can't believe that not everyone is talking about the impending catastrophe, nor are sane GOP leaders trying to save American democracy.

Polymarket now shows Trump at 59% vs Biden's 35% to win the White House. That's right, a 24% lead. Some "good news", perhaps, is that various other Democrats have a collective 7% chance, while among other non-Republicans only RFK Jr. is shown with as much as 1%. If you think these numbers are ridiculously wrong, you can create a Polymarket account, bet against Trump up to a million dollars or more and more than double your money if he loses. Betfair's numbers are somewhat less pessimistic: 52½% vs 35½%.

Are Nate Silver's predictions more reliable estimates than the numbers seen at betting markets? I dunno, but Mr. Silver's predictions are apparently only available to paid subscribers of the Silver Bulletin.

I would be very skeptical of the betting site that gives Trump a nearly 2/3 lock on the election given his past performances. He lost the popular vote in both 2016 and 2020, never rose above a 50% approval rating while in office, and while his party didn't entirely lose the 2022 mid-terms, the predicted "red wave" failed to materialize. What's more, his hand-picked candidates in contested races mostly lost. Trump has a very energized base, but as we learned in 2022, what wins in the primary does not always win in the general.

Right now we're seeing Trump repeat the strategy of playing to his base, and just barely (according to a story I heard on NPR earlier this morning) moderating his positions on things like a national abortion ban in order to "move to the center." That may be too little, too late.

As far as predictive models, I'd reference the "Keys to the White House" as developed by Allan Lichtman and Vladimir Keilis-Borok. We're still waiting for the former to make his official prediction, but he's accurately predicted the outcome of every election - save the disputed 2000 one - since 1984.

There are a few that lean against Biden, and a few that are toss-ups, but it's not looking like a guaranteed Trump win by any measure.

1. Party mandate: Right now the GOP holds a narrow lead in the House, so that goes to Trump.
2. No primary contest: There was no serious doubt that both would win this, so that's a wash.
3. Incumbent seeking re-election: Arguably a toss-up since Biden is the sitting President, but Trump is that very rare animal who comes back after losing the White House.
4. No third party: RFK Jr. isn't exactly Ross Perot. He's more like John Anderson, and he's taking more votes from Trump than Biden.
5. Strong short-term economy: By every measure except inflation, the US economy is very strong. As James Carville said over 30 years ago, "it's the economy, stupid."
6. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Biden for the win.
7. Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. Biden has been the epitome of "slow and steady wins the race."
8. No social unrest: Yes, there's protests against the Gaza ethnic cleansing, but it is limited to college campuses and not widespread unrest in major cities like in 2020.
9. No scandal: Despite their best efforts, the "Hunter Biden's Laptop" thing fizzled for the GOP, and the President refused to let his son off the hook. Another win.
10. No foreign/military failure: As much as I hate to say it, Biden's steadfast support of Israel is a winner. Likewise, abandoning Ukraine is not a winner for Trump.
11. Major foreign/military success: See above. Also, Trump has promised to resume his policy of trade wars with...well...everyone. Not a winner for Trump.
12. Charismatic incumbent: I don't think anyone has accused Joe Biden of being charismatic. This is arguably a win for Trump, but then again...
13. Uncharismatic challenger: The mainstream media has finally begun to pick up on Trump's erratic behavior. His long-winded rant on electric boats and sharks comes to mind. The debate will be interesting to watch. The rules seem to favor Biden. Trump will have no crowd to play off of, and his penchant for going off on long rants could come up hard against a moderator with a "mute" button. If he's cut off mid-waxing poetic, it may enrage him and throw him off his game even more. I'm guessing Biden's team are approaching this with the knowledge that Trump hasn't been challenged directly and in person for the last 4 years. He skipped the GOP primary debates, and has only held rallies and sat down for softball interview by fawning "journalists." When he was cornered in a court room (though he didn't testify), Trump was sullen and "low energy" until he got in front of the cameras outside the court.

On balance, the Keys seem to favor Biden fairly convincingly. What's not factored into the above (understantably) is the question of "is the challenger a convicted felon with 3 more felony trials in progress?" Yeah, folks at the Trump rallies are sporting "I'm voting for the felon" t-shirts, but then...how many independent voters in swing states are willing to say the same?

 

[Colonel Sanders]

Mr James Garfield would like to lodge an objection.

(I wonder whether Trump would recognize the name?)

Garfield was a very smart cat. The best people say he was the smartest cat.

24 hours later: Garfield Merchandise Skyrockets as Trump Supporters Race to Buy Out Cartoon Cat Merch.

 

[Elixir]

In what way was anything debunked?

Watch it.
None are so blind as those who cannot see that Biden was pausing for applause, and needed no “guidance” exiting the stage.
Not like Trump attempting a ramp or something like that.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I remember W's talking style being so annoying. Trump is even worse... "the worse ever" at least that is what "people are saying". His followers don't apparently notice Trump's dialect is limited to five or so madlibs.

Also, what in the hell is he talking about?! TSwizzle would have shared that Daily Mail link to Biden saying that about 10 minutes after it was uttered.

Also, is Trump saying he is physically unfit to be the President?

 

[Ford]

In what way was anything debunked?

Watch it.
None are so blind as those who cannot see that Biden was pausing for applause, and needed no “guidance” exiting the stage.
Not like Trump attempting a ramp or something like that.

It as entirely unsurprising coincidence that as Trump's ramblings pile up, the Trump camp goes out of their way to share videos of 81 year old Joe Biden being...81 years old. He's gonna move more slowly. He's not gonna run a marathon. But while he may move a little slower leaving a stage, he's not up there in front of the mic rambling about sharks and snakes and how nobody - not even Lincoln - has been treated as poorly as he has. Biden's decline is physical, and understandable given his age. Trump's decline is cognitive.

 

[Elixir]

Trump’s decline has been going on for at least 20 years. I guess the good news is that his mental state really can’t significantly degrade from here. In recent years he has seemed to level out at about the level of a three year old.

 

[Tigers!]

Trump’s decline has been going on for at least 20 years. I guess the good news is that his mental state really can’t significantly degrade from here. In recent years he has seemed to level out at about the level of a three year old.

No. The bottom has not been reached yet I suggest.

 

[Elixir]

Trump’s decline has been going on for at least 20 years. I guess the good news is that his mental state really can’t significantly degrade from here. In recent years he has seemed to level out at about the level of a three year old.

No. The bottom has not been reached yet I suggest.

There is no level below lettuce that needs consideration. The distance from current to lettuce is not great enough to sustain a prolonged drop.

 

[Janice Rael]

The KKK hated (hate?)

Hey @Jimmy Higgins - fix'd

 

[barbos]

So, why are you having debates before conventions?
What reasons if any was given?

 

[Janice Rael]

It's kind of silly to be focused on this event. It looks to me like its ambiguous as to whether he's wandering off or just checking out the skydiver. There are better, non-ambiguous examples of Biden not being all there. Like his reading out loud of teleprompter cues ("Pause", "End of Message", etc). Or forgetting cabinet member names (e.g. his DHS secretary most recently), getting names wrong, calling out dead people, forgetting where he is, mixing up countries, calling Kamala "President", forgetting when he was VP...

Here’s the thing: If you buy the narrative that both Trump and Biden are cognitively unfit for office, then consider who each have had in their cabinet and in a host of appointed offices, who their advisors are, etc. it is extremely clear to me that Biden appointed and relies on advisors who believe in democracy and whose values align most closely with what I think is best for the country and its people.

Trump mostly surrounded himself with amateurs, no-nothings and sycophants, with only a few who had actual experience and expertise to carry out the duties of their job.

Frankly, we were lucky that he mostly filled posts with incompetents. We won’t be nearly so fortunate next go-round. Project 2025 is linger up with an army of people with credentials and knowledge to turn this democracy into a theocracy. Frankly, they are his only hope of being ejected. The only question is how quickly he would be deposed for incompetence or general unfitness after he is elected. It would take generations to recover from such destruction.

So, why are you having debates before conventions?
What reasons if any was given?

Conventions are fun. There is an article on the Secular Web about how much fun atheist conventions used to be. People like hotel parties a lot. That's why.

There is no downside to having a convention. Public Relations won't suffer at all. The leaders of the USA are confident in the system. Hotel parties are really important to a lot of moneyed people. Nobody who matters cares or has any other ideas.

These people still think that TV ads are an appropriate expenditure. This is how we can be sure that it genuinely does not matter who the human avatar of President of the USA is. Project 2025 is a done deal.

 

[Elixir]

Uh-oh, this is not a good sign for Brandon;

Worried that Sleepy Joe might lose Iowa?
Oh NOOoooos!!
Or are you just elated that Trump will probably win Iowa?
I gotta wonder what you were predicting for Iowa 2 years ago when Trump announced his candidacy. Most of us already knew it was “Trump Country”.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

So, why are you having debates before conventions?
What reasons if any was given?

Not that I'm aware of. Conventions these days are usually a formality. 2016 was awkward for the GOP when some delegations voted against Trump. But is pretty early for a debate. Granted, our elections are so strung out, it is becoming a caricature.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Mr James Garfield would like to lodge an objection.

(I wonder whether Trump would recognize the name?)

Garfield was a very smart cat. The best people say he was the smartest cat.

24 hours later: Garfield Merchandise Skyrockets as Trump Supporters Race to Buy Out Cartoon Cat Merch.

People have been saying good things about James Garfield recently.

 

[Elixir]

sane GOP leaders

Oxymoron of the month.

 

[Politesse]

So, why are you having debates before conventions?
What reasons if any was given?

They weren't. I've been wondering whether the commercial slots have something to do with it. If a media company is doing the planning, the answer is more likely to be money related than politics related.