The Race For 2024

[Swammerdami]

Here are the numbers as the Fourth of July dawns in North America.

Betfair shows Trump as 58% to win the White House, Harris at 16%, Biden at 11%, Obama at 4½%, Newsom at 3½%, Whitmer at 2½%. Clinton is the (very distant) #7. For the D nomination, Biden and Harris are almost neck-and-neck at 40% and 37½%, with Obama at almost 8% !
. . .
Polymarket shows for the D nomination, Biden at 44%, Harris at 38%, "Other (incl. Whitmer)" at 9%, Obama at 8% and Newsom at 4%. For the brass ring they show Trump at 63%, Harris at 14%, Biden at 12%, Obama at 5%, Other D at 5%, Newsom at 2%.

Four days later, Betfair shows Trump as 60% to win the White House, Biden at 15%, Harris at 12%. Polymarket now shows Trump at 62%, Biden at 17%, Harris at 12%. Biden is 57% to be the nominee, vs 30% for Harris. Did Biden do something to impress us with his cognition, or are punters just reacting to the failure of the apocryphal wise men with cigars to act swiftly?

Meanwhile, I feel betrayed. I feel betrayed by campaign directors who set Biden up for a debate he would lose. I feel betrayed by White House insiders who should have informed campaign directors of the dangers. I feel betrayed by the American news industry which once had giants like Walter Cronkite, Katherine Graham and even Dan Rather, but now makes do with ... Wolf Blitzer? I feel betrayed by Rachel Maddow who could have had different priorities but probably coveted her million-dollar monthly income. I feel betrayed by Mitt Romney and George W. Bush who pretend to hate fascism, but have yet to endorse the D's this November.

But alas, the most terrifying aspect of the whole fascist episode is the dark fact that most of its poisons are generated not by evil men or evil peoples, but by quite ordinary men in search of an answer to the baffling problems that beset every society.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

You think it's that easy?
The cheapest I can find for an English-speaking country is Ireland. 1 million Euro investment for three years, 2 million Euro net worth.

What about Belize?

I've heard there are places in Italy they will pay you to go to.

Yeah, rural places.

But note, Italy. They speak Italian. Note that I specified English speaking countries.

 

[Swammerdami]

At present U.S. retirees can receive and spend their Social Security checks anywhere in the world. (Some countries -- which ones? -- do not allow this. For example, there are residency requirements for Australians to obtain their pensions.) Do the U.S. Redshirts have plans to change this?

Those contemplating an escape from the soon-to-be-fascist U.S.A. -- Are you working or retiring?

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Dressing room in Bergdorfs?

That's where EJC claims the attack happened, sometime in the 90s. She had no evidence whatsoever for that claim, and yet corrupt courts awarded her tens of millions for that tall tale. Not to mention that she lifted it from a 2012 episode of Law and Order SVU.

No evidence? I think The Felon's "defense" was a pretty strong indication that her claims were true. He was basically saying it's not something he would have done to her. Implying it's something he would do to someone he found more attractive. I'm not sure if I would be willing to criminally convict based on that but it's certainly enough that I would find against him in a civil verdict.

I've never been but I've been in multiple dressing rooms in my lifetime and yeah, people can and do engage in sex acts in some of these. I would be surprised if there were zero rapes in such places.

Consensual sexual acts where both have an incentive to keep it quiet is one thing. Attemted rape where there is an incentive to scream or make other noise is quite another.

When it's someone powerful who picks on someone meek it most certainly can happen.

As to the woman who claims to have been raped by Trump as a child only coming forward when other accusers did. I understand it very well. There is always the deep fear that you will not be believed, or that people will blame you. It's a lot to have on the line so there is safety in numbers.

The problem is that when you wait there is no way to prove it happened as any evidence is long gone. So you have to rely on popularity or lack thereof.

No. It's not a popularity contest. I used to agree that a long-ago rape simply couldn't be proven due to a lack of evidence but we now have two cases where I feel the defense damned itself. Perhaps not beyond a reasonable doubt but I would have no problem with finding it to preponderance of the evidence.

 

[Toni]

I knew where the attack happened. As far as who lifted what—L&O was known to base episodes on real life incidents. I’m guessing someone knew Carroll or she ghost wrote the episode. *

What evidence do you have that she "ghost wrote the episode" or even knew the writers?
I think it is much more likely that she watched the episode and maybe subconsciously used the location when constructing her narrative. She strikes me as a fabulist. Note that the allegation against Trump first surfaced when she was promoting her book where every chapter is some man either assaulting or otherwise mistreating her throughout her life.

And she kept the dress.

Which just shows how unhinged she is.
Who keeps a dress from an alleged attempted rape for 30 years?
Was the alleged DNA from the dress ever tested?

As for the person testifying about what happened when she was a child: There was a corroborating witness.

As far as I know, this alleged witness is as anonymous as "Katie Johnson" herself. As such, it has no probative value.

Consent is not an issue as she was 13 at the time. There could not have been any consent.

Which is all the more reason to report it right away and get a rape kit done. Filing a lawsuit 20 years hence because the target ote

This is not about popularity or how much I like or don’t like anyone.

Of course it is. Manhattan is ~90% Democratic. Of course convicting on a weak case or getting a huge judgment without evidence against a Republican politician reviled by Democrats is going to be much easier there than in a more politically evenly split county.

13 year olds do not think in terms of whether what some powerful person did to them was a crime. They think about whether they will get in trouble. The same person who assaulted me tried to push me out of a hayloft and I never told---because we weren't supposed to be in the hayloft. At the time he first sexually assaulted me, I honestly did not process exactly what had happened. However I was certain he'd be in big trouble for using the word fuck.

There is such a thing as shock and trauma. It is not at all uncommon for victims of sexual assault to experience shock and for it to take some time---years, even, to process what had happened. Carroll called a couple of friends (who corroborated receiving those specific phone calls) after it happened and was counseled by her friends to keep quiet--Trump was too powerful to go up against. And of course, it was a she said/he said. They made the calculus that he would be believed. I remember that was one of the biggest reasons I did not come forward--I was afraid I would not be believed. In fact, that is the only reason I have not disclosed to my sisters. If any of them expressed even a tiny bit of disbelief, I would end the relationship on the spot. And I'm a grown woman who wasn't actually raped because I fought him off. And that particular assault and the ones that followed happened 50 years ago. That's how traumatic it is.

It's crazy making. One does not expect this person that you know and have no reason not to trust to grab your crotch or your breast or to knock you to the ground and say they're going to fuck you or to put anything up inside you. It makes no sense. Alien abduction in broad daylight in the middle of a crowded mall makes more sense. You've never even considered anything like those acts before and you're trying to figure out why this is happening and how and how you could have possibly misread signals. The guy who attacked me almost always came up from behind. My sister and I always washed the dishes after dinner. One night, as I was washing a very large sharp carving knive, she came up behind me, joking around, to scare me. She didn't know I had the knife in my hand. I whipped around and am eternally grateful that I realized in that split second it was my sister and not my attacker.

You are thinking of this like a case on SVU or some other crime show. Reality is much different.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I started my application for Canadian citizenship back around 2018. Then I figured I'd wait and see what happened. When the yam dragon was slain in 2020 I figured it was over, that there would be a return to normalcy. Even at this time last year I didn't think Trump would be a viable candidate. In the meantime I worked, did things, etc.

Oh you started it? lol.

You realize it's a process that takes years? It was 5 1/2 years from when we married until my wife became a US citizen--and marriage to a citizen is the express track.

Drama? Whatever. I wonder if that's what some German guy told his Jewish neighbor in 1932.

This is absurd.

What's absurd about it? 1932 was the last election in Germany until the Nazi regime fell.

We can look back at history and see how it went, but you refuse to.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

As long as the person is of age and not being forced into it, I do not think it should be a crime, much less "rape".
Of course it is unethical, but both people in the transaction are behaving unethically here, not just the casting agent.

It's a form of kickback and should always be illegal. The problem isn't the sex per se, but that it's a form of paying the person to give you a job.

Both parties are in the wrong here. The person who provides the bribe in the form of sex is not a victim here.

Having to pay a kickback makes one a victim. I note you didn't quote the part where I expressed the same thing in money rather than sex.

 

[laughing dog]

Anyone makes such allegations - true or false - is a victim of something.

No. If the allegations are false, the accuser is a perpetrator. The falsely accused is the victim.

Psychologically well-adjusted people do not make false allegations. Something happened to this woman to cause this. That something (or someone) may not be part of the allegations. But I think she is a victim of something or someone.

Yes, but you prejudged the merits because you don't know why it was dismissed.

It was dismissed because she filed it in pro per and messed up on the legal issues. That does not mean that there was any merit to it.

Which does not mean that the allegations are untrue. Duh.

If it is a criminal complaint, then the investigating authorities have her name and can investigate. If it is a civil complaint, the defendants' lawyers can get the information to scrutinize the complaint before trial.

If allegations of a heinous crime are made against a public person, there should be a public scrutiny of the claims. Especially when it is a presidential candidate and the claims are made in an election year. I do not think there should be anonymous allegations made against Biden either - that too would be highly suspect.

Why should "public people" get special treatment? If it is legal, then it is legal.

Skepticism does not require smear tactics. For that matter, neither does rape apologia.

To you, pointing out true facts about somebody are "smear tactics".

Point out irrelevant facts (BTW, facts are true by definition) to make a victim look deserving is a smear tactic.

I do not think the likes of Crystal Mangum or Jackie Coakley should be able to hide behind the veil of anonymity either.

They're not.

And neither should so-called "Katie Johnson", whoever she is.

Too bad for you, the Magatards and the rape apologists, it is legal and it is appropriate until the case goes to trial.

 

[Toni]

I knew where the attack happened. As far as who lifted what—L&O was known to base episodes on real life incidents. I’m guessing someone knew Carroll or she ghost wrote the episode. *

What evidence do you have that she "ghost wrote the episode" or even knew the writers?
I think it is much more likely that she watched the episode and maybe subconsciously used the location when constructing her narrative. She strikes me as a fabulist. Note that the allegation against Trump first surfaced when she was promoting her book where every chapter is some man either assaulting or otherwise mistreating her throughout her life.

And she kept the dress.

Which just shows how unhinged she is.
Who keeps a dress from an alleged attempted rape for 30 years?
Was the alleged DNA from the dress ever tested?

As for the person testifying about what happened when she was a child: There was a corroborating witness.

As far as I know, this alleged witness is as anonymous as "Katie Johnson" herself. As such, it has no probative value.

Consent is not an issue as she was 13 at the time. There could not have been any consent.

Which is all the more reason to report it right away and get a rape kit done. Filing a lawsuit 20 years hence because the target ote

This is not about popularity or how much I like or don’t like anyone.

Of course it is. Manhattan is ~90% Democratic. Of course convicting on a weak case or getting a huge judgment without evidence against a Republican politician reviled by Democrats is going to be much easier there than in a more politically evenly split county.

Here’s a link to a Newsweek article. There were death threats made against the alleged victim and her family.

 

[thebeave]

There have been a lot of dismissals of Hunter Biden's bad behavior in the past here on this forum, with sarcastic retorts such as "Why do I care about Hunter Biden? He's not running the country". There was certainly a lot of truth to that back then, but maybe that's starting to change:

Hunter Biden has joined White House meetings as he stays close to the president post-debate

WASHINGTON — Hunter Biden has joined meetings with President Joe Biden and his top aides since his father returned to the White House from Camp David, Maryland, on Monday evening, according to four people familiar with the matter.

The president’s son has also been talking to senior White House staff members, these people said.

While he is regularly at the White House residence and events, it is unusual for Hunter Biden to be in and around meetings his father is having with his team, these people said. They said the president’s aides were struck by his presence during their discussions.

Another person familiar with the matter said the reaction from some senior White House staff members has been, “What the hell is happening?”

I can't think of anyone who has more recklessly destroyed his own privileged life, and now he's influencing his father on the future of this country? Maybe Joe really does believe that Hunter is "the smartest guy I know."

 

[Elixir]

I can't think of anyone who has more recklessly destroyed his own life, and now he's influencing his father on the future of this country? Maybe Joe really does believe that Hunter is "the smartest guy I know."

I can only think of a few people who have fucked up their lives worse than Hunter has fucked up his life.
But I'd VASTLY prefer Hunter Biden for President (or you or me for President), before the Republican wannabe dictator.
The unbridled greed, mendacity, cruelty and lust for power of one candidate would totally make me hope that their sheer incompetence would prevent the actual worst from happening. (As it narrowly did last time that mistake was made. Only a million "excess" American deaths seems like a small price to pay in retrospect.).

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Anyone makes such allegations - true or false - is a victim of something.

No. If the allegations are false, the accuser is a perpetrator. The falsely accused is the victim.

Psychologically well-adjusted people do not make false allegations. Something happened to this woman to cause this. That something (or someone) may not be part of the allegations. But I think she is a victim of something or someone.

Disagree--some people make false allegations to cover up something.

And some do so through plain malice.

However, I doubt either applies in this case.

Yes, but you prejudged the merits because you don't know why it was dismissed.

It was dismissed because she filed it in pro per and messed up on the legal issues. That does not mean that there was any merit to it.

Which does not mean that the allegations are untrue. Duh.

I think his point is that a pro per filing on a case asking for a lot of money basically indicates the legal world concluded she didn't have a chance.

If it is a criminal complaint, then the investigating authorities have her name and can investigate. If it is a civil complaint, the defendants' lawyers can get the information to scrutinize the complaint before trial.

If allegations of a heinous crime are made against a public person, there should be a public scrutiny of the claims. Especially when it is a presidential candidate and the claims are made in an election year. I do not think there should be anonymous allegations made against Biden either - that too would be highly suspect.

Why should "public people" get special treatment? If it is legal, then it is legal.

The problem is that public people are the target of a lot more false allegations.

 

[ZiprHead]

Huh???

 

[Politesse]

If you pierce through all the word spaghetti, you get to a confession: He's not a believer, and he thinks that means he is not contrained by moral rules at all.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[pood]

If Biden has’one foot in the glue factory,’ how should we characterize the other candidate, three years younger, who, for years has been rumored to suffer fecal incontinence, and who has been rumored, for years, to take copious amounts ts of adderall and other prescription medications for which he may/may not have a prescription, who was a frequent flyer with Jeffrey Epstein, who has been adjudicated as rapist, who has been credibly accused of sexual assault, including that of a minor child ( I don’t remember if she was 12 or 13), who has stolen government documents to and who is strongly suspected of sharing those documents with hostile foreign governments ts, who is known to have bragged and shown such documents casually to guests at Mar A Largo and whose son is frequently videotaped while apparently try high on cocaine and/or other assorted drugs and who Has been credibly suspected of numerous accounts of fraud, aside from the 34 felony counts he was found guilty of committing?

Trump often appears to be suffering from dementia.

Why is his candidacy not called more into question?

It has been called into question for years and years and years and years. What we find is that the MAGAtards DON’T CARE, and probably even support him more because he is evil and incompetent. The focus on Biden is because of the desperate desire of non-MAGAts to keep this evil, corrupt and incompetent psychopathic swindler from returning to the White House to finish the job he started of gutting what remains of our democracy. People are desperately concerned that Biden is not up to the task of winning this election, and I think they are right to be concerned.

 

[Toni]

If Biden has’one foot in the glue factory,’ how should we characterize the other candidate, three years younger, who, for years has been rumored to suffer fecal incontinence, and who has been rumored, for years, to take copious amounts ts of adderall and other prescription medications for which he may/may not have a prescription, who was a frequent flyer with Jeffrey Epstein, who has been adjudicated as rapist, who has been credibly accused of sexual assault, including that of a minor child ( I don’t remember if she was 12 or 13), who has stolen government documents to and who is strongly suspected of sharing those documents with hostile foreign governments ts, who is known to have bragged and shown such documents casually to guests at Mar A Largo and whose son is frequently videotaped while apparently try high on cocaine and/or other assorted drugs and who Has been credibly suspected of numerous accounts of fraud, aside from the 34 felony counts he was found guilty of committing?

Trump often appears to be suffering from dementia.

Why is his candidacy not called more into question?

It has been called into question for years and years and years and years. What we find is that the MAGAtards DON’T CARE, and probably even support him more because he is evil and incompetent. The focus on Biden is because of the desperate desire of non-MAGAts to keep this evil, corrupt and incompetent psychopathic swindler from returning to the White House to finish the job he started of gutting what remains of our democracy. People are desperately concerned that Biden is not up to the task of winning this election, and I think they are right to be concerned.

I do understand the concern given Biden’s age. In fact, that was for me a huge concern four years ago. That and the fact that he was more middle of the road than I preferred. BUT I do think his old school approach to politics and long relationships and extensive experience are exactly what beat Trump. My personal guess is that he might have stepped aside if Trump had not gotten the GOP nomination. My husband disagrees with me and thinks Biden has wanted to be POTUS for a long time and it's hard to give up that job.

Whichever one of us is right about that, I think most people feel that he has exceeded all expectations and pushed through more progressive legislation that I would have guessed possible.

In any case, the time to question his candidacy was during the primaries. Trump is such an existential threat to our democracy that we cannot afford to fuck around and wring our hands crying that Biden is tooo. ooolllldddd. I agree. He’s old. But he has a great team that is extremely competent to give him back up as needed. I think we are in much better shape with Biden than with Trump and those are our choices. Last minute hand wringing only helps Trump.

Part of me wonders if some of this newfound concern is really that his VP is Kamala Harris, a black woman and it is possible that she could end up taking over if his health fails. Emphasis on the woman part of the equation.

To which I answer: same issue with Trump quite possibly being unable to finish his term. How do you like any of the candidates for his VP? Definitely vomit inducing choices.

We may wish we had younger candidates to choose from but we don’t. And it’s our fault.

Let’s not compound the error by failing to elect the far superior candidate.

I’m still ridin’ with Biden. All the way baby.

 

[TSwizzle]

Brandon is not going to make it to November, he will be out before the end of August if not sooner.

 

[Politesse]

If Biden has’one foot in the glue factory,’ how should we characterize the other candidate, three years younger, who, for years has been rumored to suffer fecal incontinence, and who has been rumored, for years, to take copious amounts ts of adderall and other prescription medications for which he may/may not have a prescription, who was a frequent flyer with Jeffrey Epstein, who has been adjudicated as rapist, who has been credibly accused of sexual assault, including that of a minor child ( I don’t remember if she was 12 or 13), who has stolen government documents to and who is strongly suspected of sharing those documents with hostile foreign governments ts, who is known to have bragged and shown such documents casually to guests at Mar A Largo and whose son is frequently videotaped while apparently try high on cocaine and/or other assorted drugs and who Has been credibly suspected of numerous accounts of fraud, aside from the 34 felony counts he was found guilty of committing?

Trump often appears to be suffering from dementia.

Why is his candidacy not called more into question?

It has been called into question for years and years and years and years. What we find is that the MAGAtards DON’T CARE, and probably even support him more because he is evil and incompetent. The focus on Biden is because of the desperate desire of non-MAGAts to keep this evil, corrupt and incompetent psychopathic swindler from returning to the White House to finish the job he started of gutting what remains of our democracy. People are desperately concerned that Biden is not up to the task of winning this election, and I think they are right to be concerned.

I do understand the concern given Biden’s age. In fact, that was for me a huge concern four years ago. That and the fact that he was more middle of the road than I preferred. BUT I do think his old school approach to politics and long relationships and extensive experience are exactly what beat Trump. My personal guess is that he might have stepped aside if Trump had not gotten the GOP nomination. My husband disagrees with me and thinks Biden has wanted to be POTUS for a long time and it's hard to give up that job.

Whichever one of us is right about that, I think most people feel that he has exceeded all expectations and pushed through more progressive legislation that I would have guessed possible.

In any case, the time to question his candidacy was during the primaries. Trump is such an existential threat to our democracy that we cannot afford to fuck around and wring our hands crying that Biden is tooo. ooolllldddd. I agree. He’s old. But he has a great team that is extremely competent to give him back up as needed. I think we are in much better shape with Biden than with Trump and those are our choices. Last minute hand wringing only helps Trump.

Part of me wonders if some of this newfound concern is really that his VP is Kamala Harris, a black woman and it is possible that she could end up taking over if his health fails. Emphasis on the woman part of the equation.

To which I answer: same issue with Trump quite possibly being unable to finish his term. How do you like any of the candidates for his VP? Definitely vomit inducing choices.

We may wish we had younger candidates to choose from but we don’t. And it’s our fault.

Let’s not compound the error by failing to elect the far superior candidate.

I’m still ridin’ with Biden. All the way baby.

I definitely agree with your husband. Biden's driving political belief was always "I should be president some day", and everything else in his career was a means to that end. Which, okay. That describes most presidents, actually. He achieved that goal, and has been a competent president. Uncommonly so. But when you live your life by a single motto, you're not going to suddenly give up on it because there's some soft power pressure on you this week. The idea that Biden might voluntarily decide to step down for the good of the country was a hopeless fantasy from the word "go". I doubt it would be possible to convince him that it is time to step down, even if he were missing three limbs and a functioning Wernicke's area, and had just been caught paying hush money to a porn star to help him cover up his debts to the Russian mafia from that time he needed a hitman to take out a nosy IRS agent.

 

[ZiprHead]

If Biden has’one foot in the glue factory,’ how should we characterize the other candidate, three years younger, who, for years has been rumored to suffer fecal incontinence, and who has been rumored, for years, to take copious amounts ts of adderall and other prescription medications for which he may/may not have a prescription, who was a frequent flyer with Jeffrey Epstein, who has been adjudicated as rapist, who has been credibly accused of sexual assault, including that of a minor child ( I don’t remember if she was 12 or 13), who has stolen government documents to and who is strongly suspected of sharing those documents with hostile foreign governments ts, who is known to have bragged and shown such documents casually to guests at Mar A Largo and whose son is frequently videotaped while apparently try high on cocaine and/or other assorted drugs and who Has been credibly suspected of numerous accounts of fraud, aside from the 34 felony counts he was found guilty of committing?

Trump often appears to be suffering from dementia.

Why is his candidacy not called more into question?

It has been called into question for years and years and years and years. What we find is that the MAGAtards DON’T CARE, and probably even support him more because he is evil and incompetent. The focus on Biden is because of the desperate desire of non-MAGAts to keep this evil, corrupt and incompetent psychopathic swindler from returning to the White House to finish the job he started of gutting what remains of our democracy. People are desperately concerned that Biden is not up to the task of winning this election, and I think they are right to be concerned.

I don't think this is a MAGAtards issue. It's a media issue. The media is focusing on Bidens performance while he was quite apparently ill but ignoring the lies spewed by TFG.

It makes me wonder if they really want Trump to win because he brings eyes and ears to their platforms which means more money for them. That'll do them a lot of good when Trump tries to have the "fake media" shut down with his new Supreme Court granted powers.