The Race For 2024

[Swammerdami]

Probabilities of WH capture as predicted by the Betfair betting market shortly BEFORE the shooting incident, followed by the current numbers, several hours later:

Betfair

Trump 61% --> 67½%​

Biden 13½% --> 14%​

Harris 12% --> 8%​

Similar, but for the Polymarket betting market:
Polymarket

Trump 60% --> 70%​

Biden 19% --> 18%​

Harris 12% --> 6%​

 

[Copernicus]

Welp, that's it. Donald Trump is going to be the next president. Election's over. We can all go home now and get drunk.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Long story short, Biden benefits overall from this, in a crude sort of way, none of either his or Trump's fault.

 

[Elixir]

Biden benefits overall from this, in a crude sort of way

Howzat? I see 10%+ gains for tRump and 0.6% gains (or less) for Biden. With benefits like that, who needs impediments?

 

[bilby]

Biden benefits overall from this, in a crude sort of way

Howzat? I see 10%+ gains for tRump and 0.6% gains (or less) for Biden. With benefits like that, who needs impediments?

Biden gains simply as a consequence of the media suddenly forgetting all about the "debate", now that they have a new shiny toy to play with.

The big loser is Harris, as this change in focus reduces Biden's chances of being forced to step aside.

 

[Copernicus]

Biden benefits overall from this, in a crude sort of way

Howzat? I see 10%+ gains for tRump and 0.6% gains (or less) for Biden. With benefits like that, who needs impediments?

Biden gains simply as a consequence of the media suddenly forgetting all about the "debate", now that they have a new shiny toy to play with.

The big loser is Harris, as this change in focus reduces Biden's chances of being forced to step aside.

Not to mention the fact that Trump will have a tougher time spinning this as the act of a leftist terrorist. I'm not saying he won't try. Everyone, myself included, jumped to the initial conclusion that the shooter was doing it out of leftist political motives. It turns out to be just another gun fetishist with issues.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Biden benefits overall from this, in a crude sort of way

Howzat? I see 10%+ gains for tRump and 0.6% gains (or less) for Biden. With benefits like that, who needs impediments?

Biden gains simply as a consequence of the media suddenly forgetting all about the "debate", now that they have a new shiny toy to play with.

Exactly, though not just the media. The debate evaporated into the ether. It never happened.

The big loser is Harris, as this change in focus reduces Biden's chances of being forced to step aside.

Naw... Harris wins with Biden winning. Trying to turnaround an instant Presidential run would be hell.

 

[bilby]

The big loser is Harris, as this change in focus reduces Biden's chances of being forced to step aside.

Naw... Harris wins with Biden winning. Trying to turnaround an instant Presidential run would be hell.

I was refering to her having "lost" in the betting market figures provided by Swammerdami:

Probabilities of WH capture as predicted by the Betfair betting market shortly BEFORE the shooting incident, followed by the current numbers, several hours later:

Betfair

Trump 61% --> 67½%​

Biden 13½% --> 14%​

Harris 12% --> 8%​

Similar, but for the Polymarket betting market:
Polymarket

Trump 60% --> 70%​

Biden 19% --> 18%​

Harris 12% --> 6%​

Trump is up; Biden is unchanged; Harris is down.

Harris's path to the Presidency is still via a Biden/Harris ticket winning in November, with either Biden not serving his full term, or his having a successful second term, followed by a Harris victory in 2028.

I agree that she is unlikely to defeat Trump if Biden were to drop out before November. It's insane, but that's where we are.

 

[TV and credit cards]

It turns out to be just another gun fetishist with issues.

It's what is attracted to Trump's orbit. In a country awash with nuts and guns, they all circle Trump and some are bound to be crazier than Trump, angrier than Trump. Perhaps Trump wasn't Trump enough for him.
We'll see after the FBI goes through his phone/social history. If this be the case, it might frighten some away.

 

[abaddon]

nm, I posted in wrong thread

 

[Loren Pechtel]

To be fair: The power structure of the GOP wants to so severely change the USA that it in effect will destroy our democracy, severely limit women’s rights an led greatly curtail the rights of immigrants and persons of color while expanding the ability of corporations to trash the environment.

For example... ? Do you have insight to this grand plan in some way? Or is this more a case of what you think the slippery slope of some general GOP positions would lead to?

We keep pointing it out: Project 2025. It's their own website, it can't be faked.

And The Felon is trying to distance himself from Project 2025--but his Agenda 47 is pretty much the same thing, only worse.

 

[Toni]

For those who are not aware, here is a link to the Agenda 47 website:

Home - Project 47

Organizing and Placing Conservative Talent in the Next Presidential Administration Project 47 is an independent effort not affiliated with any political candidate or campaign. Who we Are. Project 47 is an independent effort dedicated to organizing, mobilizing, and placing conservative leaders...

47project.org

 

[ZiprHead]

Trump to announce his VP pick today.

 

[Politesse]

Trump to announce his VP pick today.

Prudent timing, I think. Especially if he needs them to pick up some of the campaigning duties for a few weeks.

 

[Politesse]

It's starting to piss me off a bit that both Presidential candidates keep insisting over and over that we need to "unify the country..." while taking actions that do the exact opposite of that. Are we supposed to pretend we can't hear the sotto voce "[...under my rule]" that follows that statement?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

JD Vance, Senator from Ohio, named as VP for Trump's ticket.

JD Vance is better known as the RINO who demanded corporations be held accountable for damage to the environment*.

* - in one case in Ohio

While JD Vance has almost no experience in Congress, in the Senate, he has served the House (unbearded) since 2017.

 

[Politesse]

Also a very prudent choice. Young, white, veteran, popular, in the Yale network. Someone's been advising him well lately.

 

[southernhybrid]

JD Vance was my biggest fear, and the one who I thought Trump would choose. He's a slick, smart bullshit artist who will fool those who are undecided into supporting Trump and himself.

Did y'all hear that the anti abortion extremists are pissed because the party is going to leave it up tot he states regarding abortion, at least for now?

 

[Politesse]

JD Vance was my biggest fear, and the one who I thought Trump would choose. He's a slick, smart bullshit artist who will fool those who are undecided into supporting Trump and himself.

Did y'all hear that the anti abortion extremists are pissed because the party is going to leave it up tot he states regarding abortion, at least for now?

I thought we were supposed to be the groundless alarmists, for assuming that they would not.

 

[laughing dog]

JD Vance was my biggest fear, and the one who I thought Trump would choose. He's a slick, smart bullshit artist who will fool those who are undecided into supporting Trump and himself.

Did y'all hear that the anti abortion extremists are pissed because the party is going to leave it up tot he states regarding abortion, at least for now?

Vance is the perfect pick for Trump: totally without scruples. However, he has flipflopped enough that I would hope it would be easy for the Democrats to paint an accurate picture of him for the undecided.