The Race For 2024

[Swammerdami]

Sez he “took a bullet for the Country”.
Waddamaroon.

A bit like John McCain, hunh? I thought he liked Presidents who didn't get shot.

 

[Tigers!]

But there is nothing stopping state legislatures from deciding that their delegates will be pledged to the top vote getter of The American People overall.
Nationalpopularvote.com

And, after "committing" to the National Popular Vote pact, there is nothing stopping state legislatures "required" to choose Blue under the Pact but whose citizens voted Red from renouncing the Pact under whatever pretext (constitutionality, following the will of their people) and choosing Red electors.

Not only COULD Red states defy the Pact they've signed, but given their recent behaviors it seems safe to say they WOULD. Thus the "Nationalpopularvote" movement however well-intentioned, is a TRAP.

Are you saying they could actually bury the vote totals, keep it all secret and tell the public their guy won?

Venezuela?

 

[ZiprHead]

JD Vance’s Campaign Won’t Deny That’s Him in Viral Drag Photo

The GOP’s vice presidential pick is a vocal critic of gender-affirming care for minors and once opposed federal protections for gay and interracial marriages.

www.thedailybeast.com

An image of JD Vance allegedly dressed as a woman and wearing a blonde wig was posted to X, formerly known as Twitter, on Sunday. The unconfirmed image quickly picked up steam and began trending under the hashtag #SofaLoren, a reference to the iconic Italian actress Sophia Loren and false claims that the Republican senator had sex with a couch.

A spokesperson for the Republican vice presidential pick did not deny the photo’s authenticity when approached by the Daily Beast, and did not offer any further comment.

The source who surfaced the alleged photo, Travis Whitfill, says the picture was taken by a fellow Yale classmate in 2012, when Vance was attending law school at the university, and sent to him by another friend. Whitfill then sent it to podcast host Matt Bernstein, who posted it to X.

 

[Toni]

I'm a lot more compassionate. Trump is a severely mentally ill, deranged man suffering from dementia. He can't help who he is since I don't think we have free will. So I'd put him in a nursing home with a lock down memory care unit. Then I'd give him a little sign that says president or king and let him watch his old rallies all day. Melania would have to come to visit and help change his diapers.

The primary goal is to keep Trump from ever entering the Whitehouse again. OMG, I'm watching one of his extremist commercials. Maybe he should at least get a little bit of prison time, before he totally loses his short term memory and then we can transfer him to the nursing home. Nursing homes these days aren't much bette than prisons, sadly.

We can’t choose our genetics or our upbringing but we can choose what to do. If indeed Trump is demented or deranged that is a different thing, but he has been a criminal and a con artist his whole life and he chose every step of the way. An old saw among therapists is that you can’t control your feelings but you can control your behavior. We certainly have free will in that sense, and Trump chooses to be bastard. I agree our prison system is geared far too much toward punishment and retribution, and needs to be humanely reformed. But there is no reason why Trump should avoid federal prison for his numerous crimes. Besides, unlike other inmates, when he is there he will have the Secret Service to keep other inmates from making him their fat orange bitch.

I'm not sure we have control over our behavior, certainly not if one is a psychopath or narcissist, and Trump displays symptoms of both, and I don't think that people who are about 80 years old belong in the prison system. House arrest with an ankle monitor, a nursing home or some other place to keep them away from others is usually more appropriate. We already have too many mentally ill people in prisons. We never should have closed down the majority of our state mental institutions during the 80s. But, I digress so I'll skip my rant about that issue.

Plus, whether we like it or not, I doubt Trump will get prison time, or if he does, it will be a very short sentence. The crimes he has already been convicted of usually don't result in much if any of a prison sentence, especially if the person has no prior convictions. I agree that he's been a criminal or grifter for most of his adult life, but he has only been convicted of the felonies in New York, and based on all the delay tactics in the other cases, especially the ones in Georgia and Florida, I'd be shocked if the other cases even were to come to trial before he dies.

I won't shed any tears if he is sent to prison, I just don't think it will happen and I'm not sure that's the best solution. We just need to keep him out of the Whitehouse and worry about the rest of his crimes later, assuming he's still alive and fit for trial. SCOTUS certainly hasn't make it easy to prosecute a former president either, so that's another problem.

Oh, I think there is control over our behavior, with almost all mental illnesses, including narcissism and sociopathy. It may be imperfect but there I think it is a matter of impulse control. One can be rational and a sociopath. One can be a narcissist and rational at the same time. It's just a much more narrow and twisted POV that the rationale is based upon.

I think that prison time for Trump is necessary and good for the country if we are to remain a country where laws apply to everyone, although I am extremely aware that they do not apply to everyone in the same way.

Then we will have to agree to disagree on that one. I don't think a mentally ill person belongs in prison and I strongly believe that Trump is seriously mentally ill. He does need to be restricted to his home, or something like that, should what he has been charged with ever goes to trial. Plus, we have this thing in the US called, innocent until proven guilty. So, while it may be obvious to us that Trump is guilty, it must be proven in a court of law before he's actually guilty, other than the case that has already proven him guilty, but will probably not end up with a prison sentence, based on what I've read. Probation is probably the most he will get in that case, assuming SCOTUS even allows that.

I know you're smart enough to know that there is no justice in this country. Being wealthy, famous, male and white usually lets one get away with non violent criminal behavior, especially if done while president. We don't know if Nixon would have been given more than probation for his crimes, since he was pardoned.

We do disagree. I think that some people who are mentally ill and commit some crimes do belong in prison if duly convicted in a court of trial. Most people have some degree of mental illness at some point in their lives. Being depressed does not force you to rob a bank. Being a narcissist does not force you to also be a rapist or murderer. Being so delusional that you think your next door neighbor is poisoning the governor so you ‘stop’ them by killing them certainly means you should not be free in society but whether you belong in prison or a mental hospital is a matter for professionals to determine. People who set fires often suffer from serious mental illnesses but they cannot be allowed to be free.

I definitely know of cases where people were duly convicted and sentenced to prison when they clearly needed serious mental health treatment —in a very secure mental health hospital.

I agree that Trump is a special case because he faces greater threats against his life and also because trying and convicting a firmer POTUS is without any precedent in the US. Although his crimes are politically motivated, it is imperative that any charges, trial and sentencing ( if convicted) not appear to be politically motivated.

I think he’s guilty of treason* and I believe the penalty for treason is death. I don’t believe in capital punishment but attempting to overthrow the government might be the exception. Still, it would be potentially very dangerous to execute someone for a political crime. Caution is much better.

I do feel a tremendous amount of compassion for how Trump was raised. But my compassion pretty much evaporates under the weight of his many crimes, including rape, rape of children, and selling classified information to foreign powers. I absolutely DO want to acknowledge that my opinion does not constitute proof and should not be construed as me believing g that Trump or anyone should ever be convicted on my say so.

Trump is a suck old man with increasing dementia. That should be considered in determining the best course of action. He deserves prison ( again if duly convicted) but that is probably impractical. I would be satisfied if he were confined to Mar A Lago, without access to the internet, reporters, or online shopping. House arrest with strict limitations as to his freedom might be the best we can do. Of course, appropriate medical care should be provided. Certainly during the period of his incarceration Mar A Lago would have to cease operations as a club/resort/whatever the hell it is they think they are doing there. No big staff or personal attendants. Basic cable only.

 

[lpetrich]

The Horrifying Fascist Manifesto Endorsed By J.D. Vance

A disturbing book plans a ruthless total war against the “unhuman” left.

www.currentaffairs.org

I don't exactly feel like starting a separate thread about this so I'm sticking it here.

Yeah, this isn't Vance. But Vance endorses it. I haven't seen the book but every mention I have seen of it has been horrific.

I discussed that in the Project 2025 thread. Seems to me that it ought to be titled "Unser Kampf" ("Our Struggle").

 

[lpetrich]

Tech Billionaires Love Trump Now — Because He’s One of Them - "Silicon Valley’s right-wing history goes back over 100 years; Donald Trump is a perfect avatar for their power play."

To find common purpose with tech oligarchs, Trump didn’t have to learn the difference between silicon and silicone. Though the industry leaders like to portray themselves as a bunch of science geniuses, they’re just as likely to be Trump-style flimflams. One of the nominee’s top tech supporters, Sacks, invested in a digital health startup called Done Global whose executives have been charged with running a glorified Adderall pill mill.

Trump’s deals with overseas authoritarians and oligarchs hardly put him on the outs. Silicon Valley golden boy Sam Altman has been trying to raise no-typo trillions of dollars in Gulf oil money for his newest project off the hype from billions-losing OpenAI — a Trumpy plan if ever there were one.

Republicans plead with Donald Trump to control impulses, focus on policy

Republicans are pleading with former President Trump to focus on policy after he has spent the first few weeks against Vice President Harris’s surging campaign indulging what they see as his worst impulses.

Since Harris replaced President Biden as the Democratic nominee in late July, Trump has exasperated some of his allies with a lack of discipline in his campaign messaging.

Which goes so much against the self-image of the Right. We are the realists, we are the sober ones, we are the rational ones, we are the wise ones, we are the ones with self-control, ... how can the Republican Party put up with him?

In that time, he has attacked Harris over her biracial heritage, blasted the popular Republican governor of Georgia during an Atlanta rally, touted the size of the crowd on Jan. 6 in comparison to the audience from the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.’s “I Have a Dream” speech, and falsely claimed Harris’s huge rally crowds were fabricated.

DT has also attacked KH on immigration, the border, and the economy.

But those attacks have been overshadowed by Trump’s inability to stay on message. Instead, he has set off a series of negative news cycles while Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), barnstormed battleground states.

Donald Trump's persona hurts his polls against Kamala Harris, says Frank Luntz
A Republican pollster.

“If it’s about issues, Trump is much more likely to be successful. If it’s about attributes, Harris is much more likely to be successful, because quite frankly, people like her more than they like him. It’s something that, if he’s watching this right now, his head is exploding — and that’s part of the problem,” Luntz said over the weekend in a CNN interview.

He acts like a big baby who throws temper tantrums, while KH is much more level-headed.

Her rallies drew thousands of attendees last week, which the campaign has touted against Trump, who has long looked to crowd size as a measure of support.

Trump has repeatedly bashed Harris and her newly tapped running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), and accused their campaign of faking the “massive crowd sizes.”

He's a VERY sore loser.

 

[lpetrich]

That article linked to
Truth Details | Truth Social

I’m doing really well in the Presidential Race, leading in almost all of the REAL Polls, and this despite the Democrats unprecedentedly changing their Primary Winning Candidate, Sleepy Joe Biden, midstream, with a Candidate, Kamala Harris, who failed to get even a single Primary Vote, and was the first out of 15 Democrat Candidates to quit the race. I did great in 2016, and WON, did much better in 2020, getting many millions more votes than ‘16, but this, 2024, is thus far my best Campaign, the most enthusiasm and spirit, etc. My team is doing a great job despite the constant 8 year obstacle of dealing with the Fake News and low self esteem leakers. We are going to WIN BIG and take our Country back from the Radical Left Losers, Fascists, and Communists. We will, very quickly, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

Kamala Harris builds momentum against Donald Trump in national, state polls

 

[scombrid]

BTW, tampons and pads are great at stopping blood flow and are terrific to have in any first aid kit.

Good at absorbing it. Not so good at stopping it. If you need to stop it you need clotting stuff or a pressure bandage.

Tampons are great for plugging bullet holes. Stop the bleed training said vet wrap and tampons were almost invaluable in a kit. I sat on a jury for a trial where the suspect was shot in the neck in the middle of State Road 520. Bullet went clear through and left him flat in the median bleeding profusely. Female officer plugged the hole with a tampon. He lived to get convicted of eight felonies in that trial.

 

[lpetrich]

🕷Dante Atkins🕷 on X: "Something that's really making ..." / X

Something that's really making a lot of policy wonks on the left crazy is how how little detailed policy specifics actually matter to voters. Policy details are downstream of values, and if people trust you on values, then they'll trust you on policy because they're not experts.

Bernie wasn't a hero to people because of detailed policy positions, he was a hero because he expressed a cogent, strident, uncompromising value system that was underrepresented in US politics. Nobody really cared about the technical details.

"But she doesn't have a policy section on her website!" And nobody gives a damn because they're not policy experts for the most part, and even if they were, presidents aren't kings who get to impose tax law by fiat. But they want to know you'll do what they feel is right.

Policy wonkery is the domain of how best to implement your values. It's a conversation for when you hold power, and obviously, having a wonky team is important for implementing your values. But on a campaign, demonstrating your values is far more important.

I searched for that site, and the first link was to this donation page: Harris Victory Fund — Donate via ActBlue

A little further down was her main campaign page: Kamala Harris for President It has prominent donation links, and also Meet Vice President Kamala Harris - Kamala Harris for President: Official Campaign Website and Meet Governor Tim Walz - Kamala Harris for President: Official Campaign Website and Take action to elect Kamala Harris and Tim Walz and Volunteer Opportunities, Events, and Petitions Near Me · The Democratic National Committee on Mobilize and Harris Victory Fund Webstore

That store has a camouflage hat with "HARRIS-WALZ" printed on it, alongside the usual sort of campaign merchandise. I find a curious lack of coconut-related merch, or merch that uses one of her favorite phrases, "what can be, unburdened by what has been.”  Public image of Kamala Harris

Rather paltry compared to Official AOC Shop - merch with lots of slogans, like "AOC 2024", "Repro Rights Are Human Rights", "A Better World Is Possible", "The Green New Deal", "Tax The Rich", "Fight For My Future", "Fight For Our Future", "Change Takes Courage", 'Abolish ICE", "Medicare for All", "Social, Economic, & Racial Justice", and a set of 6 Green New Deal posters.

Those posters are for Flushing Meadows in Queens, NYC, Pelham Bay Park in the Bronx, NYC, Griffith Observatory in Los Angeles, CA, The Public Garden in Boston, MA, Hart Plaza in Detroit, MI, and Plaza Del Totem in San Juan, PR.

 

[lpetrich]

Evan Sutton on X: "There are a handful of nerds () ..." / X

There are a handful of nerds () who love policy papers. But the reality is that most voters decide on vibes. Nearly every presidential election of my lifetime from 1980 to today the winner was the person voters felt most comfortable with.

There are two components to this. First is that your candidate has to be able to tap into the vibe (polisci people will cringe at "vibe" but happily say "zeitgeist" so if you need to read it that way, go for it). What does the electorate need emotionally right now?

Reagan and Obama were hope candidates. Biden and Bush Sr. were stability candidates. Bill Clinton and Obama were generational change candidates. W. and Trump were id candidates who needed opponents who were easily as deeply out of step, as well as outside help.

Id?  Id, ego and superego - that's from Freudian psychology. Sigmund Freud himself used das Es, Ich, and Über-Ich: -- the it, I, and over-I in German -- but translators have preferred Latinate terms: id, ego, superego.

• Id - impulses
• Ego - rational decision-making
• Superego - moral rules, customs, conscience, and the like

That helps clarify what's so odd about Donald Trump.

 

[lpetrich]

The best way to win is finding the emotional core of the electorate and appealing to it (see 80, 92, 08 e.g.). But you likely also need a strong "not like us" negative message. The less you appeal to the vibe, the more you need to paint your opponent as outside the vibe.

Carter, Mondale and Dukakis were weak and ineffectual by the time election day rolled around. H. W. Bush (92), Dole, Gore, Kerry and Romney were out of touch elitists. Trump (20) was an agent of chaos in a time when people wanted stability.

Hillary was dragged down by 25 years of focused smears and a campaign apparatus that failed to combat it effectively. Even so she won the popular vote by millions and could have won the EC but for some very gnarly fuckery and some v bad campaign decisions

Hillary Clinton got as many votes as she did because many people are yellow-dog Democrats, either reflexively partisan or firmly convinced that the Democratic Party is the lesser of the two major evils. I must note that there are also plenty of yellow-dog Republicans.

I remember a joke that Dukakis is Greek for Mondale.

 

[bilby]

Id?

Id, ego and superego - that's from Freudian psychology. Sigmund Freud himself used das Es, Ich, and Über-Ich: -- the it, I, and over-I in German -- but translators have preferred Latinate terms: id, ego, superego.

• Id - impulses
• Ego - rational decision-making
• Superego - moral rules, customs, conscience, and the like

That helps clarify what's so odd about Donald Trump.

Yeah, he is literally an idiot.

And idiots gonna id.

 

[GenesisNemesis]

But there is nothing stopping state legislatures from deciding that their delegates will be pledged to the top vote getter of The American People overall.
Nationalpopularvote.com

And, after "committing" to the National Popular Vote pact, there is nothing stopping state legislatures "required" to choose Blue under the Pact but whose citizens voted Red from renouncing the Pact under whatever pretext (constitutionality, following the will of their people) and choosing Red electors.

Not only COULD Red states defy the Pact they've signed, but given their recent behaviors it seems safe to say they WOULD. Thus the "Nationalpopularvote" movement however well-intentioned, is a TRAP.

Are you saying they could actually bury the vote totals, keep it all secret and tell the public their guy won?

Venezuela?

Funny you should mention that.

Donald Trump says he will go to Venezuela if he loses election

Trump told Elon Musk in an interview that they could meet in Venezuela as it is "a far safer place to meet than our country."

www.newsweek.com

 

[Elixir]

But there is nothing stopping state legislatures from deciding that their delegates will be pledged to the top vote getter of The American People overall.
Nationalpopularvote.com

And, after "committing" to the National Popular Vote pact, there is nothing stopping state legislatures "required" to choose Blue under the Pact but whose citizens voted Red from renouncing the Pact under whatever pretext (constitutionality, following the will of their people) and choosing Red electors.

Not only COULD Red states defy the Pact they've signed, but given their recent behaviors it seems safe to say they WOULD. Thus the "Nationalpopularvote" movement however well-intentioned, is a TRAP.

Are you saying they could actually bury the vote totals, keep it all secret and tell the public their guy won?

Venezuela?

Funny you should mention that.

Donald Trump says he will go to Venezuela if he loses election

Trump told Elon Musk in an interview that they could meet in Venezuela as it is "a far safer place to meet than our country."

www.newsweek.com

"The Government of the United States of America and the Government of the United States of Venezuela agree to deliver up to justice, by means of requisition duly made as herein provided, any person who may be charged with or may have been convicted of any of the crimes committed within the jurisdiction of one of the ... blah blah blah."

Yes Donny, there is an extradition treaty. Maybe you better plan to settle down in more familiar surroundings, say, on Jeffery's Island.

 

[lpetrich]

2016 is probably the most outlier election any of us will live through. It was a freak event, requiring an incredibly strange set of events and countervailing cultural vibes that essentially pitted America's raw id against America's ego (in the psychological sense)

But for Comey getting played, I believe Hillary would have won. But I do think Bernie better understood the vibe of 2016 than either Hillary or Trump. The electorate was deeply restless, and in the end enough so to put an unqualified lunatic in the White House

Donald Trump ran against the political establishment, defeating 5 then-present and former Senators, 9 then-present and former Governors, along with 1 former CEO of a big business and 1 neurosurgeon. He then governed much like his Republican predecessors, it must be noted, with the help of that same political establishment, like then Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Liberals scoffed mightily in 2000 at exit polls that showed Bush "winning" because many voters said he was the candidate they'd rather have a beer with. But it's to our great disadvantage that we ignore vibes, and the lightning-quick turnaround we're seeing is evidence of that

Think of Gore in 2000 (whose election was stolen by SCOTUS, but only because it was close enough for them to steal). He was inheriting a prosperous economy, an America at peace, a world order with American dominance seemingly assured, and yet...

Between his own awkward manner (remember "lockbox"?), the anchor of Bill Clinton's misbehavior, and W.'s easy flowing party boy vibe, Al couldn't seal the deal strongly enough, leaving the door open for the GOP SCOTUS to decide the outcome.

One sign of discontent was the success of Ralph Nader's Green-Party candidacy. I've seen estimates that his voters were about 2/3 Democratic and 1/3 Republican, so if he wasn't in that race, then Al Gore would have gotten larger margins, enough to convincingly win in Florida.

Today, as @brianbeutler lays out excellently, we're seeing a complete revision of America's economic sentiment as a result of Democrats having a new candidate at the top of the ticket - a candidate who shifted the vibe war dramatically in our favor

We'll get policy details at some point. We can haggle over those and WH staffing and whatnot after we win. But if we don't win, we get nothing. And if we want to win, we need to recognize that vibes win elections, not policy papers, and do everything we can to keep the vibes high

Very interesting vibes results here. As much as the "rather drink with" has been the standard vibes check for years, I think "rather babysit your child" is key for Dems to lean into this election. The future is our collective child, after all.

Then noting polls of MI, PA, and WI showing KH beating DT in who one might want to have a drink with and babysit one's children, and who is less weird and has the less weird party.

Those three "Blue Wall" states are states that Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump in 2016, helping DT win that election.

 

[lpetrich]

Kamala Harris's Rise Refutes An Influential Democratic Theory Of Politics - "A revisionist (and correct) retelling of Joe Biden's rise to the presidency, and political collapse."
It's partially paywalled, but it includes this tidbit:

American confidence in the economy, which dipped after Biden’s fatally damaging debate performance, shot up at a record-breaking pace over the past two weeks. According to Financial Times survey data, switching Biden out for Harris was all it took to persuade voters that Democrats will be better stewards of the economy than Republicans. And she has room to grow: The entire effect was driven by so-called “double-haters”—voters who disliked both Trump and Biden—coming off the “neither” sidelines to say they trust Harris more than Trump. Trump’s flat numbers suggest basically nobody has given him a second look since Harris took over for Biden—she isn’t scaring anyone away, she’s drawing everyone in her direction.

Importantly, though, she accomplished this feat of influence over public opinion without changing anything material about the world. Economic conditions didn’t abruptly improve over the past month (if anything, they have deteriorated). The Biden-Harris administration hasn’t implemented any major new economic policies this summer. Harris hasn’t yet unveiled her policy agenda, which might at least in theory persuade some voters that, on economic matters, Harris > Trump > Biden.

So confidence in the economy is partially a function of confidence in Presidential leadership, it seems. Joe Biden seems very feeble, while Kamala Harris seems very vigorous.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The right-wing was all over the Biden is senile angle. The debate happens and... Biden walks right into a bear trap. Biden needed to respond loudly to that failure and while he tried, he didn't seem up to it. Certainly not the level required to make up for the debate. There still remains little evidence to suggest Biden is senile, relative to the mountain of evidence that proves Biden is old. Dude has a Methuselah rookie card!

What polls were saying was neither candidate was popular. So when the Democrats offered a new candidate, they almost became instantly popular because the alternative to Biden was a barely less old Trump. Trump wasn't going to become more popular if the Dems provided a better option. And again, one of Trump's other problems was going on and on about age, when he was just about as old. With Biden stepping aside, Trump walked right into his own bear trap.

 

[Patooka]

Fucking hell, the interview between Trump and Musk was so bad, even RVonse is probably going to disavow it.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/elon-musk-interview-trump-x-social-media-network-2024-08-12/

Trump rambles, slurs his way through Elon Musk interview. It was an unmitigated disaster.

Donald Trump's campaign took another hit with a disastrous, glitchy X interview with Elon Musk that left many wondering if the former president is OK.

www.usatoday.com

DeSantis must be thinking, "fuck I got off easy with my fuckup on Twitter"

 

[ZiprHead]

One sign of discontent was the success of Ralph Nader's Green-Party candidacy. I've seen estimates that his voters were about 2/3 Democratic and 1/3 Republican, so if he wasn't in that race, then Al Gore would have gotten larger margins, enough to convincingly win in Florida.

I don't want to turn this into a derail but Gore actually won Florida.

Florida 'recounts' make Gore winner

Al Gore, not George Bush, should be sitting in the White House today as the newly elected president of the United States, two new independent probes of the disputed Florida election contest have confirmed.

www.theguardian.com

 

[Elixir]