The Race For 2024

[Shadowy Man]

The expectation of a close race is vital for Harris to stand a chance.

If the voters think Trump is almost certain to lose, the D. turnout will plummet, but the R. turnout will hardly budge - MAGA fanatics don't care what the lying pollsters might say.

That's what did for Hillary. Everyone knew Trump couldn't win - which was what made it possible for him to do exactly that.

So the logic is this:

Pollster: “If you all vote the way you say you will then your candidate will win.”

Voter: “Great! Then I don’t need to vote!”

Makes sense, right??

 

[Copernicus]

The expectation of a close race is vital for Harris to stand a chance.

If the voters think Trump is almost certain to lose, the D. turnout will plummet, but the R. turnout will hardly budge - MAGA fanatics don't care what the lying pollsters might say.

That's what did for Hillary. Everyone knew Trump couldn't win - which was what made it possible for him to do exactly that.

So the logic is this:

Pollster: “If you all vote the way you say you will then your candidate will win.”

Voter: “Great! Then I don’t need to vote!”

Makes sense, right??

The flip side of that logic is "If you all vote the way you say you will, then your candidate will lose anyway". The electoral college and reliance on opinion poll predictions tend to encourage a kind of fatalism in voters that suppresses votes. And, since many Americans only care about the top of the ticket, or some hot button issue on a ballot, they don't bother voting in downballot races. So the real battle for the presidency ends up in a handful of "batttleground states". Incumbents in downballot races tend to get reelected, unless there is some outstanding reason for voters to notice their races.

 

[GenesisNemesis]

He seems pretty panicked.

 

[Elixir]

He seems pretty panicked.

I can’t imagine why. His caplock still works, and that’s all he needs, right?

 

[Rhea]

That’s astonishing that he is unaware of how unhinged and weird he sounds.
(And equally unaware are my friends who are libertarians and conservatives. It’s just so weird. Look at that post. It’s weird. Really, come on.)

“I WILL FIX ALL OF THAT AND FAST”… seriously? Seriously??

 

[Elixir]

That’s astonishing that he is unaware of how unhinged and weird he sounds.
(And equally unaware are my friends who are libertarians and conservatives. It’s just so weird. Look at that post. It’s weird. Really, come on.)

“I WILL FIX ALL OF THAT AND FAST”… seriously? Seriously??

“I WILL FIX ALL OF THAT AND FAST”…
You don’t want everything fixed fast?
Commie.


(No, really - his idiots actually believe this shit)

 

[bilby]

The expectation of a close race is vital for Harris to stand a chance.

If the voters think Trump is almost certain to lose, the D. turnout will plummet, but the R. turnout will hardly budge - MAGA fanatics don't care what the lying pollsters might say.

That's what did for Hillary. Everyone knew Trump couldn't win - which was what made it possible for him to do exactly that.

So the logic is this:

Pollster: “If you all vote the way you say you will then your candidate will win.”

Voter: “Great! Then I don’t need to vote!”

Makes sense, right??

That's exactly it. It's not a uniquely US phenomenon, either - it was one of the factors that got Brexit over the line in the UK.

 

[unapologetic]

In some parts of the world this is a doner

#4 -- this is the word unapologetic intended.

Spellcheck failed me again. Is the word 'donater'?

That's what did for Hillary. Everyone knew Trump couldn't win - which was what made it possible for him to do exactly that.

Your not gonna let me forget that, are you. I'm sorry, I'm sorry. I'll vote in every election from now on. I promise.

 

[bilby]

Spellcheck failed me again. Is the word 'donater'?

The most common spelling is 'donor'.

 

[JohnG]

The expectation of a close race is vital for Harris to stand a chance.

If the voters think Trump is almost certain to lose, the D. turnout will plummet, but the R. turnout will hardly budge - MAGA fanatics don't care what the lying pollsters might say.

That's what did for Hillary. Everyone knew Trump couldn't win - which was what made it possible for him to do exactly that.

So the logic is this:

Pollster: “If you all vote the way you say you will then your candidate will win.”

Voter: “Great! Then I don’t need to vote!”

Makes sense, right??

I think NYT had Clinton at 85% chance to win. No reason to get off the couch. Everything will be just fine.

 

[bilby]

The expectation of a close race is vital for Harris to stand a chance.

If the voters think Trump is almost certain to lose, the D. turnout will plummet, but the R. turnout will hardly budge - MAGA fanatics don't care what the lying pollsters might say.

That's what did for Hillary. Everyone knew Trump couldn't win - which was what made it possible for him to do exactly that.

So the logic is this:

Pollster: “If you all vote the way you say you will then your candidate will win.”

Voter: “Great! Then I don’t need to vote!”

Makes sense, right??

I think NYT had Clinton at 85% chance to win. No reason to get off the couch. Everything will be just fine.

That's about a 1/7 chance of losing.

A candidate with that chance should lose one in seven elections; If every election had similar odds, the outsider would win every 28 years. So, two or three times in your lifetime, unless you have an unfortunately short lifespan.

That's really not sufficiently certain for my liking, particularly when the outsider in question is Donald fucking Trump.

But humans are shit at statistics, and guesstimate that 85% is basically 100%.

It isn't.

 

[Tigers!]

That's what did for Hillary. Everyone knew Trump couldn't win - which was what made it possible for him to do exactly that.

Your not gonna let me forget that, are you.

I'm sorry, I'm sorry. I'll vote in every election from now on. I promise.

Now if we could get 100 million of your fellow Yanks to do the same .....

 

[Tigers!]

If (God forbids) Trump wins in Nov. how many will finally do what they have claimed on some many times and actually leave the USA for a better country? Do we have any figures on the expected immigration, escape rate?

This is NOT to be represented as an invitation to come to Australia. Yanks are always better 'over there'

 

[GenesisNemesis]

If (God forbids) Trump wins in Nov. how many will finally do what they have claimed on some many times and actually leave the USA for a better country? Do we have any figures on the expected immigration, escape rate?

This is NOT to be represented as an invitation to come to Australia. Yanks are always better 'over there'

I think the number of people you think who claim they are going to leave the country are fewer than you believe there are.

 

[Tigers!]

If (God forbids) Trump wins in Nov. how many will finally do what they have claimed on some many times and actually leave the USA for a better country? Do we have any figures on the expected immigration, escape rate?

This is NOT to be represented as an invitation to come to Australia. Yanks are always better 'over there'

I think the number of people you think who claim they are going to leave the country are fewer than you believe there are.

Dunno about that. Its seems anyone who in is anyone in Hollywood has threated to do so. Not a good sample pot I know.

A few on these fora have mumbled about is over the years. So how many is it?

 

[TV and credit cards]

This is NOT to be represented as an invitation to come to Australia. Yanks are always better 'over there'

Agreed.

 

[Shadowy Man]

If (God forbids) Trump wins in Nov. how many will finally do what they have claimed on some many times and actually leave the USA for a better country? Do we have any figures on the expected immigration, escape rate?

This is NOT to be represented as an invitation to come to Australia. Yanks are always better 'over there'

Assuming they would want to stick to an English speaking country of similar culture, how easy is it to get work permits and citizenship in Australia, New Zealand, Canada or the UK? It’s not clear to me that one can simply move.

 

[Elixir]

It’s not clear to me that one can simply move.

Given the means you could live wherever you want, and come back to Trumpistan at required intervals to renew your visa.
Right now I don’t have any choice, as Mrs E is in no shape for travel. Hopefully that changes sooner than later.

 

[unapologetic]

This is NOT to be represented as an invitation to come to Australia.

I am sure a large number of people in pre WWII Germany said they were leaving, and really regreted not following through.

(What is the past tense of 'regret'? Spellcheck says regreted is wrong.)
I am in a poor condition. I can't even afford to move to Canada. And I'm only a 20 hour bus ride away.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Voter registration is spiking, particularly among young adults

As Election Day nears, record numbers of young voters are registering, inspired in part by Taylor Swift.

www.usatoday.com

On Tuesday's National Voter Registration Day more than 150,000 people registered through Vote.org, the most the organization has ever seen on that day. The organization registered 279,400 voters in all of last year.
Last week, 337,826 people visited a link posted on Instagram by pop star Taylor Swift that directed them to their state's voter registration site.

According to Vote.org, voters under 35 made up 81% of Tuesday's registrations, with the biggest spike among 18-year-olds. On this year's National Voter Registration Day, 11% of those registered were 18, which is 53% higher than on the same day four years ago.
"We're really seeing a surge in 18-year-olds registering to vote." Vote.org CEO Andrea Hailey said. "We know that we can onboard the next generation of voters into our democracy if we can get people to register and get out to these elections."