The Race For 2024

[Copernicus]

Looks like it's yours to lose, KH. There's only one thing you have to do: The right thing. I mean Trump ain't picking up the Muslim vote. Stein's platform better recognizes Palestinians and rejects the Zionist movement.


Muslim Americans moving to Jill Stein in potential blow to Kamala Harris

The pro-Israel vote is not insignificant, and Harris still has to toe the administration line on giving Netanyahu whatever he wants in the end. She can only lose by getting embroiled in this issue. Stein is once again carrying water for Donald Trump in a critical swing state. If she were not on the ballot, many of those voters would probably go to Harris rather than Trump, who is no less enthusiastic about giving Israel whatever it wants. After all, Netanyahu made a beeline right for Mar-a-Lago when he last visited. Unfortunately, too many Americans seem oblivious to the fact that voting for a third party candidate is essentially voting to let other people determine which major party candidate wins an election, and it's usually the one that is least compatible with their own politics. So I imagine that Stein is now awash in Republican money--the same money that was backing RFK Jr's failed campaign.

I just saw a BBC interview of Muslim women in Michigan who say they’ll vote 3rd party, which makes it more likely that Trump will win. And if he does, not only will Israel get everything they want, these people will be harassed in their own communities.

Not all Muslim women will vote 3rd party, so it is just a percentage of them that will. A certain percentage of Republican voters will also vote 3rd party or abstain, because Donald Trump. Regardless of how many of any constituent community will vote, Harris is still outpolling Trump by 49% vs 47%. She just needs to win the plurality of voters, and no politician can please everyone. So it is too soon to panic over these clickbait stories. Harris is not going to be able to satisfy both sides of the Middle East crisis during her campaign. The main story here is still that Jill Stein is a Trump card being played in Michigan. She is earning what Republicans pay her to fund her ego trip.

 

[Tigers!]

In my neck of the woods, the political ads are starting. Last night there was an anti-Biden/Harris ad based on the increase in the price level over the past 4 years. The best part was - and I quote this verbatim - "ABC proved it with charts".

I really resent being reminded about how fucking stupid the parties think the public is.

That seems to be a world-wide phenomenon. Very prevalent in Australia. The ads are aimed at the LCD and the bar is very low.

 

[steve_bank]

From the polls there is a glimmer of a light at the end of the tunnel, Harris may pull it off.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[Shadowy Man]

Sounds like a flat earther talking about physics.

 

[hurtinbuckaroo]

Fox has Harris leading. Apparently they’re part of the left wing conspiracy.

 

[TSwizzle]

Sounds like a flat earther talking about physics.

Yup, it's right up there with men can get pregnant and women can have a penis.

 

[Shadowy Man]

Sounds like a flat earther talking about physics.

Yup, it's right up there with men can get pregnant and women can have a penis.

Well, you have never heard me make that argument, so it's not really relevant.

He's saying that all the pollsters in the country are in on a conspiracy to influence the actions of politicians. Most people are sheep and believe that the pollsters are acting in good faith, when in reality a small number of special folk know the truth. This is essentially the same formula as flat earthers and physics hence my comment, which is an appropriate response to the video, whereas yours seems like a separate gripe about a subset of the left-wing that is mostly a non-sequitur vis a vis this video.

 

[Swammerdami]

There seems to be plenty of evidence that in today's America, with cellphones and polarization, polls are no longer reliable predictors. Even the latest polls in 2016 and 2020 were way off. Betting markets are probably more reliable.

... Increasingly, it appears that Trump is going to lose the election in a big way. Having already lost in 2016 by 3 million votes and 2020 by 7 million votes, there’s little to indicate he’s expanded his voter base; instead, by doubling down on hate, racism, and calls for violence he’s managed to offend a large part of the traditional GOP. When Dick Cheney says you’re too much of a fascist, you’re in trouble.

Now comes Northwestern University data scientist Thomas Miller, who’s developed an intriguing way to predict election outcomes. Instead of looking at polling data — which has proved woegeously unreliable over the past decade, probably because of cell phones — Miller looks at betting markets and draws his trends and predictions from them. They’re dynamic, updated instantly, and real money is on the line so there’s no margin for error.

But the betting markets show a race for POTUS that is almost a coin-toss. As I write, Harris leads by only 3 points at Polymarket (51-48). She's ahead 8 points at Betfair, still not much. (These numbers continuously fluctuate. Yesterday she was ahead 5 points at Polymarket and 7 points at Betfair.)

But the "error-bars" are huge when treating these gamblers' odds as predictions. The race is a . . . TOSS-UP

. . .
My prediction is that by one hour after the networks agree that Donald Trump is a blowout nationwide loser, every elected major Republican in the country will abandon him. . . .

What's my prediction? The race will be extremely close, but the Reds already have various plans for cheating. They only need to refuse to certify a result to deprive EITHER side of 270 EV's and throw the election to the Trumpist House of Reps. I'd like to be an optimist, but I do NOT feel confident.

Among the swing states, Florida (G), Georgia (G), New Hampshire (G), Virginia, Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina all have BOTH Houses of the state legislature controlled by Republicans. I've marked three of these states with a "G" to denote Republican Trifecta -- the Governor is also Republican....
Under rules confirmed by the Supreme Court, any of these states' legislatures may cast their electoral votes for Trump regardless of the ballots cast in their states....
[Instead of submitting FAKE results, it will be sufficient for the Red-controlled state to simply refuse to submit any certified results at all.]
Among swing states, only Michigan and Nevada have Blue-controlled legislatures; Pennsylvania's houses are split.

Assuming Harris gets Wisconsin and Michigan her best hope is to also take Pennsylvania AND Omaha. Note the "AND Omaha": There is a very real chance that Nebraska will stage a last-minute coup and give Trump the win, 269-269.

 

[Elixir]

The race will be extremely close, but the Reds already have various plans for cheating. They only need to refuse to certify a result to deprive EITHER side of 270 EV's and throw the election to the Trumpist House of Reps. I'd like to be an optimist, but I do NOT feel confident.

+1
I know that there are people in high places who know it and are doing what they can to prepare for it, but I don’t really see what they can do about it.

 

[ZiprHead]

Georgia's election board just declared that all ballots must be hand counted even though as I understand it that is an illegal rule.

It's to delay delay delay.

 

[Elixir]

Georgia's election board just declared that all ballots must be hand counted even though as I understand it that is an illegal rule.

It's to delay delay delay.

I'd think it should be pretty easy to get that struck down?

 

[Copernicus]

Georgia's election board just declared that all ballots must be hand counted even though as I understand it that is an illegal rule.

It's to delay delay delay.

I'd think it should be pretty easy to get that struck down?

That depends on who is doing the striking. In any case, Trump will use the ruling to challenge the results, if it is struck down and the election results go against him. Also, the hand counting process might allow for more shenanigans by Trumpie officials at the county level when the ballots are counted. The important thing for Trump is that it creates more chaos in the election process in an important swing state.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Georgia's election board just declared that all ballots must be hand counted even though as I understand it that is an illegal rule.

It's to delay delay delay.

I'd think it should be pretty easy to get that struck down?

That takes time. If the state goes blue they'll just run the clock out and not send the votes to Washington.

 

[TSwizzle]

Sounds like a flat earther talking about physics.

Yup, it's right up there with men can get pregnant and women can have a penis.

Well, you have never heard me make that argument, so it's not really relevant.

I’m just noting the similarity, it sounds like the people that say men can get pregnant and women can have a penis talking about biology.

 

[Swammerdami]

What's my prediction? The race will be extremely close, but the Reds already have various plans for cheating. They only need to refuse to certify a result to deprive EITHER side of 270 EV's and throw the election to the Trumpist House of Reps. I'd like to be an optimist, but I do NOT feel confident.

Here's Rachel Maddow with the same concern, an unprecedented development in American politics.

 

[bilby]

The expectation of a close race is vital for Harris to stand a chance.

If the voters think Trump is almost certain to lose, the D. turnout will plummet, but the R. turnout will hardly budge - MAGA fanatics don't care what the lying pollsters might say.

That's what did for Hillary. Everyone knew Trump couldn't win - which was what made it possible for him to do exactly that.

 

[Elixir]

Looking like GA is going to be a real rat's ass of skulduggery this cycle...
A full "overhaul" of election rules, designed to give Trump the win, has been passed by the maggot-led elections board.
Most of their "new rules" are illegal as hell, and that's probably by design; if there's controversy about them, all the better for Cheato.
It has become apparent that until some life (or death) sentences are levied on some of these "Republican" traitors, they're going to keep right on treasoning.

 

[Elixir]

The expectation of a close race is vital for Harris to stand a chance.

They're working on it. But it's getting more difficult: The predictit board now shows an 18 point gap on the yes/no question of "Harris becomes the 47th President".
That's not a true reflection of the state of the race of course, but it IS reflective of the trend of expectation: it was about the reverse of that a few months ago (when it was Biden).