The Race For 2024

[Copernicus]

I think that Mary Trump has a lot to say re: her uncle that is valuable and adds context. I feel some pity for the gross negligence that comprised his childhood. But he’s been an adult for a very long time. People with far greater delusions and far less a steady grasp on reality have been judged fit to stand trial, have been convicted and are serving their sentences in general population ( not that I think that’s the right thing) and most of them presented a far lesser degree of danger to the general public/world at large.

Have you read her book Too Much and Never Enough: How My Family Created the World's Most Dangerous Man? It is a very interesting read. A lot of what she writes is colored by her resentment caused by a deep conviction that he stole her inheritance, but she hasn't been able to prove that in court. Nevertheless, she has a lot of insight into his mental character.

 

[Rhea]

I think y’all are giving Trump far too much credit for “normalcy.” My personal experience in knowing someone who self-deludes but appears normal to others leads me to believe the path of, “he says a lie and he INSTANTLY believe it is true,” because I have seen this happen.

And at the heart of it, Trump knows the truth, however inconvenient it is.

I do not think he does. I have watched my mother do this. He does exactly the same thing. She gets in a corner, she says a thing that would get her out of the corner, regardless of the fact that it is not true, and she INSTANTLY AND UTTERLY believes her version. Her memory of what happened is changed completely.

If you prove it was not true, they INSTANTLY AND UTTERLY believe they never said that thing you just proved is not true.

I was actually arguing that he is delusional. Normal people don't believe their own lies. When one talks about the human mind, I don't think we can claim that it always operates rationally or resolves all inconsistencies. Even normal people hold fundamentally contradictory beliefs.

I agree that he appears delusional - self deluding - to me. The delusional do not always appear delusional to those who don’t see them often.

Trump, however, does not behave like a normal person. I think that there is a part of him that knows he is lying and another part that wishes the lie to be the truth and a struggle over which part gets to be in control.

I do not think there is even a tiny struggle. He utterly believes that whatever benefits him is the truth, even if it contradicts something he just said. History changes completely and he is not even aware mof it. He lies because he describes the world he wants to see, and it becomes his reality as soon as he says it.

He can and does lie about anything and everything. He just never thought he’d be held accountable. He needs to be proven wrong.

He will not (ever) accept that he has been proven wrong. He will change his story until he is right again. And he will UTTERLY believe that this was the truth all along.



I grew up in a household where one parent was Trump (truth is what whatever they wanted it to be) and the other one was Rainman (Truth was preciesly and accurately noted and never forgotten.). It was… explosive.

 

[Elixir]

His willingness to believe a lie is not evidence that he didn't know the truth.

Let’s have a protracted argument about what we believe the definition of believe might be.
Mine would include : If you know otherwise, the best you can do for belief, is learn to consciously compartmentalize that knowledge - I don’t think you can just fugeddaboudit.

 

[Toni]

I think that Mary Trump has a lot to say re: her uncle that is valuable and adds context. I feel some pity for the gross negligence that comprised his childhood. But he’s been an adult for a very long time. People with far greater delusions and far less a steady grasp on reality have been judged fit to stand trial, have been convicted and are serving their sentences in general population ( not that I think that’s the right thing) and most of them presented a far lesser degree of danger to the general public/world at large.

Have you read her book Too Much and Never Enough: How My Family Created the World's Most Dangerous Man? It is a very interesting read. A lot of what she writes is colored by her resentment caused by a deep conviction that he stole her inheritance, but she hasn't been able to prove that in court. Nevertheless, she has a lot of insight into his mental character.

Yes, I’ve read it. And yeah, one needs to read around the resentment to get a portrait of the uncle. One does get a very good picture of the poisonous family dynamics.

 

[Toni]

I think y’all are giving Trump far too much credit for “normalcy.” My personal experience in knowing someone who self-deludes but appears normal to others leads me to believe the path of, “he says a lie and he INSTANTLY believe it is true,” because I have seen this happen.

And at the heart of it, Trump knows the truth, however inconvenient it is.

I do not think he does. I have watched my mother do this. He does exactly the same thing. She gets in a corner, she says a thing that would get her out of the corner, regardless of the fact that it is not true, and she INSTANTLY AND UTTERLY believes her version. Her memory of what happened is changed completely.

If you prove it was not true, they INSTANTLY AND UTTERLY believe they never said that thing you just proved is not true.

I was actually arguing that he is delusional. Normal people don't believe their own lies. When one talks about the human mind, I don't think we can claim that it always operates rationally or resolves all inconsistencies. Even normal people hold fundamentally contradictory beliefs.

I agree that he appears delusional - self deluding - to me. The delusional do not always appear delusional to those who don’t see them often.

Trump, however, does not behave like a normal person. I think that there is a part of him that knows he is lying and another part that wishes the lie to be the truth and a struggle over which part gets to be in control.

I do not think there is even a tiny struggle. He utterly believes that whatever benefits him is the truth, even if it contradicts something he just said. History changes completely and he is not even aware mof it. He lies because he describes the world he wants to see, and it becomes his reality as soon as he says it.

He can and does lie about anything and everything. He just never thought he’d be held accountable. He needs to be proven wrong.

He will not (ever) accept that he has been proven wrong. He will change his story until he is right again. And he will UTTERLY believe that this was the truth all along.



I grew up in a household where one parent was Trump (truth is what whatever they wanted it to be) and the other one was Rainman (Truth was preciesly and accurately noted and never forgotten.). It was… explosive.

Oh, wow. That would be extremely rough.

I think Trump deluded himself but feet to the fire, he does know reality from delusion. Which is why he clings so damn hard to delusion. And invents new ones as necessary.

 

[Elixir]

If you prove it was not true, they INSTANTLY AND UTTERLY believe they never said that thing you just proved is not true.

That’s one thing when it’s your mother. Quite another when your false statement was taped by eleven broadcast companies and there are seven different camera angles of you saying it. Instantly and utterly? No way. That would be rubber room shit.

 

[lpetrich]

Which 2024 Candidates Will Be at the First Republican Debate? - The New York Times

Of the candidates, 9 meet all 3 of the RNC's qualifications: have at least 40,000 donors, have at least 200 donors per state in at least 20 states, and get support from at least 1% of Republican voters in at least 3 polls.

Of these, 8 candidates have signed the pledge to support the party's nominee, whoever that nominee is, with the exception being Donald Trump.

Look for these candidates to show up: Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence, Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Christie, Doug Burgum, Asa Hutchinson

Of the other candidates, Francis Suarez and Larry Elder have met the fundraising targets but not the polling target, and Will Hurd has met none of them. Also falling short is Perry Johnson.

At Least 8 Republicans Have Made The First Debate. Could 3 More Join Them? | FiveThirtyEight
noting
RNC Announces Participants for First Debate in Milwaukee | GOP
listing those 8 candidates.

538 noted that Perry Johnson is like Francis Suarez and Larry Elder in having enough donors, but not good enough poll numbers.

Also about Trump and the debate, "Instead, Trump took part in a pre-recorded interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson that is expected to run at the same time as the debate." So Trump wants to distract people from that debate. If he succeeds, then he'll be gloating about how he has triumphed over those 8 RINO's. But if he fails, he'll insinuate that the RINO's of the RNC tried to compete with him and his magnificence.

 

[lpetrich]

Democrats Root for a Rowdy GOP Debate - The New York Times - "Top Democrats, suddenly feeling a bit better about 2024, would love to see Republicans talk about a national abortion ban. They’re less excited about the inevitable Hunter Biden tirades."

Will they rally around a national abortion ban?

How much do Republicans cozy up to Trump?

Will the Trump indictments be a focus?

What about Hunter Biden?

Democrats hope to dispel the fiction that it won’t be Trump.

Fiction?

Democrats widely view Mr. Trump as the easiest Republican candidate to defeat next year. Mr. Biden beat him once already, they reason, and Mr. Trump’s cascading legal problems and singular ability to repel moderate Republicans and swing voters make him the one they’d like to face.

Mr. Trump’s dominance in polls of the Republican primary and the reluctance of most of his G.O.P. rivals to attack him have led most Democrats to conclude that Wednesday’s debate, along with much of the primary, is an academic exercise being held before next year’s Trump-Biden rematch.

“I was just going to watch it for comic relief,” said Representative Jasmine Crockett, a Texas Democrat. “This is done. We are going to have Trump versus Biden 2.0. That’s what’s about to happen. Anyone who is kidding themselves into believing that they have a shot is just delusional.”

The other Presidential candidates may want to use that run as support for being appointed Vice President or some Cabinet position, a run for some other office, or a media career.

“Learn how to count to 200,” said Representative Eric Swalwell of California, who, many people may have forgotten, ran for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020. “Because that’s about the amount of seconds that you’re going to have to speak.”

 

[TSwizzle]

Oh dear lord;

Joe Biden has sparked outrage by comparing the Hawaiian blaze that killed at least 114 people to a kitchen fire - and joking about 'hot ground' to a rescuer. The President's motorcade was met with screams of 'f*** you' after he finally arrived in Maui. Biden compounded the anger in a garbled, meandering speech about the deaths of his wife and daughter in 1972, before comparing the horrific blaze to a kitchen fire at his Delaware home in 2004. The 80-year-old capped off his disastrous five-hour tour by asking a rescue team whether their boots were reinforced, noting the 'hot ground' beneath their feet in a tone-deaf attempt at humor.

Daily Mail

Brandon can't possibly run again. No way, the man's a cabbage.

 

[lpetrich]

The 6 Kinds of Republican Voters - The New York Times

First to note:  The Three Leg Stool (GOP)

Ronald Reagan coined the term as a way to describe the Republican party as a three part coalition based on the social conservatives (consisting of the Christian right and paleo-conservatives), war hawks (consisting of interventionists and neoconservatives), and fiscal conservatives (consisting of right-libertarians and free-market capitalists), with overlap between the sides.

Back to the NYT profile. I've added the NYT's listed politicians into it, and also the poll results for the two Republican President frontrunners.

The Moderate Establishment (14%). Highly educated, affluent, socially moderate or even liberal and often outright Never Trump. Susan Collins, Charlie Baker, Chris Sununu. DT 28%, RdS 12%

The Traditional Conservatives (26%). Old-fashioned economic and social conservatives who oppose abortion and prefer corporate tax cuts to new tariffs. They don’t love Mr. Trump, but they do support him. Rick Perry, Tim Scott, Marco Rubio. DT 55%, RdS 20%

The Right Wing (26%). They watch Fox News and Newsmax. They’re “very conservative.” They’re disproportionately evangelical. They believe America is on the brink of catastrophe. And they love Mr. Trump more than any other group. ed Cruz, the Freedom Caucus and Newt Gingrich. DT 71%, RdS 10%

The Blue Collar Populists (12%). They’re mostly Northern, socially moderate, economic populists who hold deeply conservative views on race and immigration. Not only do they back Mr. Trump, but he himself probably counted as one a decade ago. Rudy Giuliani, Paul LePage, Lou Barletta, Michael Grimm. DT 71%, RdS 12%. Rand Paul, Jason Chaffetz, Dave Brat. DT 43%, RdS 12%

The Libertarian Conservatives (14%). These disproportionately Western and Midwestern conservatives value small government. They’re relatively socially moderate and isolationist, and they’re on the lower end of Trump support compared with other groups. DT 43%, RdS 12%

The Newcomers (8%). They don’t look like Republicans. They’re young, diverse and moderate. But these disaffected voters like Democrats and the “woke” left even less. Vivek Ramaswamy. DT 56%, RdS 11%

 

[MilesBennell]

Meanwhile, out here in what used to be a decent state to live in....


Poll respondent Diane Bird, a 55-year-old from Fort Madison, said she will support Trump in the caucuses and doesn’t believe the results of the 2020 election.

That election so discouraged her that she briefly decided she would no longer vote, she said, before later changing her mind.

“I do believe that (Trump) was cheated,” Bird said. “There’s many people that I know that call Biden the illegitimate president, that he cheated. And I believe that because I saw it on TV.”

 

[Shadowy Man]

Meanwhile, out here in what used to be a decent state to live in....
View attachment 44039

Poll respondent Diane Bird, a 55-year-old from Fort Madison, said she will support Trump in the caucuses and doesn’t believe the results of the 2020 election.

That election so discouraged her that she briefly decided she would no longer vote, she said, before later changing her mind.

“I do believe that (Trump) was cheated,” Bird said. “There’s many people that I know that call Biden the illegitimate president, that he cheated. And I believe that because I saw it on TV.”

They probably believe he won the 2022 election, also.

 

[Politesse]

Meanwhile, out here in what used to be a decent state to live in....
View attachment 44039

Poll respondent Diane Bird, a 55-year-old from Fort Madison, said she will support Trump in the caucuses and doesn’t believe the results of the 2020 election.

That election so discouraged her that she briefly decided she would no longer vote, she said, before later changing her mind.

“I do believe that (Trump) was cheated,” Bird said. “There’s many people that I know that call Biden the illegitimate president, that he cheated. And I believe that because I saw it on TV.”

They probably believe he won the 2022 election, also.

And 2024.

 

[Copernicus]

Oh dear lord;

Joe Biden has sparked outrage by comparing the Hawaiian blaze that killed at least 114 people to a kitchen fire - and joking about 'hot ground' to a rescuer. The President's motorcade was met with screams of 'f*** you' after he finally arrived in Maui. Biden compounded the anger in a garbled, meandering speech about the deaths of his wife and daughter in 1972, before comparing the horrific blaze to a kitchen fire at his Delaware home in 2004. The 80-year-old capped off his disastrous five-hour tour by asking a rescue team whether their boots were reinforced, noting the 'hot ground' beneath their feet in a tone-deaf attempt at humor.

Daily Mail

Brandon can't possibly run again. No way, the man's a cabbage.

The prestigious Daily Mail would never stoop to embellishing a story to smear a Democratic candidate, would it? I looked at the hit piece to see what could possibly be behind Biden's disastrous behavior on this trip. It looks like they did manage to get some cell phone footage of a small group of people shouting insults at his motorcade. (I listened for the f-bomb but must have missed it.) I guess that there are even some MAGA Republicans in Hawaii after all. Obama's home state. How could that be? The "reinforced boots" video snippet was basically some harmless banter he engaged in with folks, but nobody seemed to take it amiss. Like Trump, the man occasionally rambles. Both men are advanced in their years. No question about it. I guess this is how the MAGA crowd hopes to get Trump reelected. Play the dementia card, and hope the voters don't care about all the criminal trials.

 

[TSwizzle]

The prestigious Daily Mail would never stoop to embellishing a story to smear a Democratic candidate, would it? I looked at the hit piece to see what could possibly be behind Biden's disastrous behavior on this trip. It looks like they did manage to get some cell phone footage of a small group of people shouting insults at his motorcade. (I listened for the f-bomb but must have missed it.) I guess that there are even some MAGA Republicans in Hawaii after all. Obama's home state. How could that be? The "reinforced boots" video snippet was basically some harmless banter he engaged in with folks, but nobody seemed to take it amiss. Like Trump, the man occasionally rambles. Both men are advanced in their years. No question about it. I guess this is how the MAGA crowd hopes to get Trump reelected. Play the dementia card, and hope the voters don't care about all the criminal trials.

You think Biden is fit for another five years?! Really?

 

[Copernicus]

The prestigious Daily Mail would never stoop to embellishing a story to smear a Democratic candidate, would it? I looked at the hit piece to see what could possibly be behind Biden's disastrous behavior on this trip. It looks like they did manage to get some cell phone footage of a small group of people shouting insults at his motorcade. (I listened for the f-bomb but must have missed it.) I guess that there are even some MAGA Republicans in Hawaii after all. Obama's home state. How could that be? The "reinforced boots" video snippet was basically some harmless banter he engaged in with folks, but nobody seemed to take it amiss. Like Trump, the man occasionally rambles. Both men are advanced in their years. No question about it. I guess this is how the MAGA crowd hopes to get Trump reelected. Play the dementia card, and hope the voters don't care about all the criminal trials.

You think Biden is fit for another five years?! Really?

At the moment he seems to be. Even in a coma, he would be more fit than Donald Trump, but I wouldn't bet that Trump actually ends up being the Republican alternative to Biden. The smear tactics against Biden really aren't necessary. Nobody likes the fact that he is so old, and I'm sure he doesn't either. Sadly, those are the two strongest candidates that both parties have right now. Everyone would prefer younger candidates.

 

[Shadowy Man]

The prestigious Daily Mail would never stoop to embellishing a story to smear a Democratic candidate, would it? I looked at the hit piece to see what could possibly be behind Biden's disastrous behavior on this trip. It looks like they did manage to get some cell phone footage of a small group of people shouting insults at his motorcade. (I listened for the f-bomb but must have missed it.) I guess that there are even some MAGA Republicans in Hawaii after all. Obama's home state. How could that be? The "reinforced boots" video snippet was basically some harmless banter he engaged in with folks, but nobody seemed to take it amiss. Like Trump, the man occasionally rambles. Both men are advanced in their years. No question about it. I guess this is how the MAGA crowd hopes to get Trump reelected. Play the dementia card, and hope the voters don't care about all the criminal trials.

You think Biden is fit for another five years?! Really?

More so than Trump.

 

[TSwizzle]

At the moment he seems to be.

You think so?! The man's a cabbage. Look at the state of him! And he's getting worse.

 

[TomC]

You think Biden is fit for another five years?! Really?

It's relative.
Frankly, I'd rather have Hillary. She's a bit younger than Trump or Biden.

But I'd vote for nearly anyone before I'd vote for any of the top GOP candidates, at the moment.
Tom

 

[Elixir]

You think Biden is fit for another five years?! Really?

Of course he is. He has the best people.
Thats why he has accomplished record job growth, the fastest economic recovery in the world and dozens of bipartisan bills passed with thinnest of margins in Congress.
Talk about contrast ….
Trump’s “best people” are all testifying against him in CRIMINAL PROCEEDINGS. If they’re not in jail already.