The World-O-Meter Thread

[bilby]

Pretty much the analogy. I wasn't being serious. I thought the sarcasm was obvious.

That there dam has kept the water back for 50 years. Don't need the dam to do it anymore.

I rather like this analogy:

View attachment 27101

Did you just admit that walls work?

No. As I have never claimed that walls "don't work", it isn't possible for me to "admit" anything of the kind.

And even if I were adamant that "walks don't work" (whatever the fuck that could mean in the absence of context), you might note that I didn't say anything about walls. All I said was that I liked an analogy, made by someone else.

A medieval city wall, with the gates closed, secured, and guarded, that surrounds a besieged city wherein food and water are available, most certainly "works" as a means of keeping out an attacking army, at least for a time, as long as the attackers don't have effective siege weapons.

This doesn't imply that all concepts of "wall" are going to "work" for any definition of "work".

But of course, as you are apparently intelligent enough to find and operate your computer, you already know that.

If ...

No. Fuck off.

 

[Politesse]

At keeping out Mongols? The largest land empire in history, that overthrew most of the walled cities of their day? No, they didn't work all that well.

 

[Trausti]

At keeping out Mongols? The largest land empire in history, that overthrew most of the walled cities of their day? No, they didn't work all that well.

Tell Israel that.

 

[Politesse]

At keeping out Mongols? The largest land empire in history, that overthrew most of the walled cities of their day? No, they didn't work all that well.

Tell Israel that.

That walls don't stop modern armaments? I rather think they've noticed.

 

[Trausti]

At keeping out Mongols? The largest land empire in history, that overthrew most of the walled cities of their day? No, they didn't work all that well.

Tell Israel that.

That walls don't stop modern armaments? I rather think they've noticed.

Israel's wall stopped illegal crossing by 99% from 2010 to 2016; suicide attacks a distant memory.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Gilead's Remdesivir

Sure looks promising.
But Trump knew it all along.

 

[Elixir]

Gilead's Remdesivir

Sure looks promising.
But Trump knew it all along.

Unfortunately there were no controls done. It will have to go under at least some reduced level of scrutiny with a study or few including control groups before it gets approval, then ramped up manufacturing, then distribution. Promising enough to give the DOW a 500+ point bump at the open, but it looks like that was just the standard kneejerk overreaction by a market eager to grasp at any good news not matter how straw-like.

 

[Elixir]

That walls don't stop modern armaments? I rather think they've noticed.

Israel's wall stopped illegal crossing by 99% from 2010 to 2016; suicide attacks a distant memory.

Yes, they have stood up very well against the most modern armaments that late 19th century technology can provide.

 

[Keith&Co.]

It all makes sense now. Struck me this afternoon.
For fifty years there has been a story that confused me. Didn't make ANY sense at all.
It's a classic, iconic, but still hard to swallow. Seems like no one could play so perfectly against their own interests.
But suddenly i realize, all the story needs is some idiot with 'Make Troy Great Again' embroidered on his red tunic saying, "The War is over! The Greeks left! Any concerns about the mysterious horse are an anti-monarchist HOAX!"
And the story becomes a teachable example for all the ages of man.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Did you just admit that walls work?

If there were Democrats back then, the analogy would look more like this:

Republican: We need the wall up to stop the Mongols!"
Democrat: Nonsense. I'm sure they are not ALL bad. We don't need a wall.
Republican: But, it seems pretty obvious they want to attack our way of life.
Democrat: Nonsense! They are just people like you and me. Stop being so scared and xenophobic.

Walls do squat without firepower to back them up. And walls only work when complete--something that will never happen in the US as the majority of our border is water, not land. Not to mention that the majority of illegals are overstays, not illegal entries.

 

[Elixir]

04-17

14 days after USA first broke 30,000 new cases/day and we're still over 30k, with 2500+ deaths. Looks like at least two more weeks of similar, and more if new cases maintain in the 30k/day range.

 

[Elixir]

04-18

Plateauuuuuu

 

[blastula]

It's possible the plateau in cases is a reflection in the plateau in testing.

 

[fromderinside]

With their criteria that has to be the case. Eyup. Test when people report symptoms. That covers it.


NOT

 

[Loren Pechtel]

It's possible the plateau in cases is a reflection in the plateau in testing.

View attachment 27178

Yup, I think our numbers are basically fiction at this point.

Another factor I would like to see: positive tests on patients vs positive tests on healthcare workers and the like. I strongly suspect the former is very high.

 

[Elixir]

It's possible the plateau in cases is a reflection in the plateau in testing.

View attachment 27178

Yup, I think our numbers are basically fiction at this point.

No doubt. But the numbers we get are what they are. Even if they don't reflect what they nominally represent, they still mean something, though what they mean might be that we are being fed a line of crap.
Testing numbers not even on a plateau, they're declining. Case numbers seem to be decreasing while critical cases increase - is a higher percentage of cases turning critical because they're not tested until they're sick as hell? Can it be that critical cases are coming in un-tested? Obviously they're harder to ignore once they become critical, so that's one number that should be easier to report accurately. Stayed tuned therefore, and see if "critical" gets re-defined to lower the numbers. World-o-meters is good about saying so when things get revised, reporting is late or parameters change.
The last straw for the numbers will be when we find out that doctors are being pressured to fill out the cause of death as other than Covfefe-19 whenever the patient had so much as a hangnail when they died.

Another factor I would like to see: positive tests on patients vs positive tests on healthcare workers and the like. I strongly suspect the former is very high.

That would be consistent, since healthcare personnel are supposedly being tested prophylactically sans symptoms unlike the general population.
One thing is for sure - we will be very close by May, some three months in, to the death count from 20 years of the Vietnam War. How people like Swizzle can try to represent that as a minor loss is beyond me.

 

[Elixir]

04-19

Finally, maybe a "real" decline. "Only" 25k+ new US cases and 1500+ deaths. But the number of critical cases continues to tick up.

 

[Jokodo]

Finally, maybe a "real" decline. "Only" 25k+ new US cases and 1500+ deaths. But the number of critical cases continues to tick up.

View attachment 27189

Not saying it isn't a real decline, but these are Sunday data. Delayed reporting over the weekend is not unheard of, more so in some countries than others (look at Sweden's daily deaths for an example of how bad it can get).

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Finally, maybe a "real" decline. "Only" 25k+ new US cases and 1500+ deaths. But the number of critical cases continues to tick up.

View attachment 27189

Not saying it isn't a real decline, but these are Sunday data. Delayed reporting over the weekend is not unheard of, more so in some countries than others (look at Sweden's daily deaths for an example of how bad it can get).

Just check of the Wiki page chart.



Pretty impressive how you can find the weekends in there even when you can't easily discern the date.

Meanwhile red states saw decent bumps last week like Arkansas (50%), Nebraska (80%), Oklahoma (30%). South Dakota has a huge bump due to the packing plant infection rate and Ohio has a prison that saw an explosion of cases.

Seriously, if nothing demonstrates distance is still needed, the prison and packing plants show exactly how important it is.

 

[Elixir]

Not saying it isn't a real decline, but these are Sunday data. Delayed reporting over the weekend is not unheard of, more so in some countries than others (look at Sweden's daily deaths for an example of how bad it can get).

Quite right. Comparing Sunday to Sunday still shows a bit of decline though. We'll see if the other shoe drops in the next couple of days. Even if new cases stopped showing up tomorrow (which is far from the case) we'd still be in for weeks of four-digit daily deaths. So it's not a pretty picture at all.