Trump Will Likely Win

[ZiprHead]

MAGAs might believe that, but rational people don't. Nevertheless, Kamala Harris is to the left of most Democrats.

Good.

 

[ZiprHead]

Yes, we will need oil for a long time to come. I just think fracking is not worth the risk when there better places to drill. Actually, I am in favor of expanding drilling in Alaska. Infrastructure is there and they have a pretty good record. And, don't bring up Exon/Valdes, that was a shipping mistake that has been fixed.

I think fracking is definitely worth it. It allowed US to go from 5 Mbbl/d to >10 Mbbl/d. It also greatly expanded our natural gas capacity. Without fracking, it would have been impossible for us to supply Europe with LNG to make them less dependent on Russian gas. This was important in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine.

You got it backward, fracking allowed US to start a war with Russia. And you do realize that EU still depends on Russia? it's just russian LNG instead of less expensive pipe NG. And Germany is fucked becasue of american fracking.

The underpants gnomes argument?

 

[Derec]

Uh, the people I run down cover the spectrum, as do the people I support.
Is there a black female politician of whom you approve?

It's difficult because I like very few politicians regardless of skin color or plumbing. Especially recently with increasing polarization.
But from what I have seen, Stacey Abrams seemed decent when she ran for governor. I think that after her 2018 loss she should have ran for GA5 (John Lewis' old seat) or for US Senate in 2020 instead of endorsing the preacherman.

 

[barbos]

Yes, we will need oil for a long time to come. I just think fracking is not worth the risk when there better places to drill. Actually, I am in favor of expanding drilling in Alaska. Infrastructure is there and they have a pretty good record. And, don't bring up Exon/Valdes, that was a shipping mistake that has been fixed.

I think fracking is definitely worth it. It allowed US to go from 5 Mbbl/d to >10 Mbbl/d. It also greatly expanded our natural gas capacity. Without fracking, it would have been impossible for us to supply Europe with LNG to make them less dependent on Russian gas. This was important in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine.

You got it backward, fracking allowed US to start a war with Russia. And you do realize that EU still depends on Russia? it's just russian LNG instead of less expensive pipe NG. And Germany is fucked becasue of american fracking.

The underpants gnomes argument?

No just reports which says ironically that Russia is close #2 in gas in EU. It's just amount of gas reduced due to slow death of manufacturing.

 

[Derec]

I see Kamala winning unless there is some sort of major black swan event or major crash in the markets. People mostly vote with their pocketbooks and job prospects. And since voting has already begun while the markets are still up, I would bet on her.

Economy is chugging along, yes. Oil is not too expensive, which is also good for the incumbent party.
People are still struggling with the effects of high inflation though.
The October surprise could be a major war in the Middle East. If Nasrallah is dead, the Ayatollah might feel pressured to attack Israel directly.

Trump screwed himself heavily with Row vs Wade and the women are not going to forgive him.

Roe, but yeah, Dobbs was a very unpopular decision and some of the things that happened in its wake are even worse. Like a woman in Georgia dying because doctors would not perform D&C until it was too late.
Georgia’s abortion ban linked to Amber Thurman's death in ProPublica investigation: What to know

 

[Derec]

Do you not know what "break up" means?

Yes, of course I do.

Google (e.g.) would be forced to split into multiple independent companies. The existing shareholders would retain their proportional ownership in each.

Not so fast! You did not quote what I was responding to. Here it is again:

"Left" would be breaking up Amazon, Google, Microsoft, WalMart, and other corporate giants. "Hard left" would be breaking them up AND making them owned/run by the workers.

If you make a company owned by the workers, then the existing shareholders would not retain their ownership.
Google market cap is ~$2T. They have ~181k employees. That's ~$11M per employee.
So I am repeating my question for Ford: do you advocate the government buying the owners out, or are you advocating outright theft?

 

[southernhybrid]

Uh, the people I run down cover the spectrum, as do the people I support.
Is there a black female politician of whom you approve?

It's difficult because I like very few politicians regardless of skin color or plumbing. Especially recently with increasing polarization.
But from what I have seen, Stacey Abrams seemed decent when she ran for governor. I think that after her 2018 loss she should have ran for GA5 (John Lewis' old seat) or for US Senate in 2020 instead of endorsing the preacherman.

I agree with you regarding Stacey, who I was very supportive of. I even attended a rally she gave here in town, when she ran in 2018. I was happily surprised such excitement over her candidacy. I was hoping she would run for Senator, but I guess she wants to do something more administrative. Anyway, it's her decision. Btw, I don't think that Kamala is any further left than Stacey. I like both of them, but felt that Stacey was more charismatic. I voted for Warnock in the primaries because I felt he was the only one who could win in Ga. He's ok, but his Democratic opponents were more qualified, and he could at least give up being pastor of his church, although I've heard him say he supports the rights of us nonbelievers. I can't remember who his opponents were, but I did research them prior to voting. Stacey helped give us a Democratic Senator, even if he wasn't my first choice. It could be worse.

Okay. off topic enough. I think Harris will likely win. She's picking up steam, polling better and a lot of Republicans who weren't really cult members are voting for her or considering voting for her. Trump is a deranged criminal, who acts crazier everyday. His running mate is a hypocrite who seems to be running to gain power and nothing else. He's a sexist, and racist, a perfect match for Trump.

I imagine you've seen some of Trump's ads, All they do is call Harris names and demonize her anyway they can think of, while Harris actually describes things she would like to accomplish. We all know that most presidents can't get much of what they want accomplished, especially considering the lack of cooperation between the parties. She won't have control over the Congress, even if the Dems are able to maintain a majority in the Senate, it will be slim. SCOTUS is obviously corrupt, so the US is a total mess. All we need is a second Trump presidency to do a lot more damage to the country. Now he's saying he's going to prosecute anyone who criticized SCOTUS. The Trump supporter I've discussed his crazy claims with, simply replies with, "Oh he says a lot of things that he doesn't really mean". All politicians do, but nobody says things as crazy and vengeful as that man.

Now, if you have time, there's a question in the lounge asking if you did okay during the storm. I assume you did since you're posting here now. I've already reported that my area had very little damage and none of my friends lost their power. It's good that people care about each other, even if we rarely agree.

 

[ZiprHead]

Oil is not too expensive, which is also good for the incumbent party.

I just heard that Saudi Arabia is going to increase their production.

 

[southernhybrid]

Gasoline is actually less than 3 bucks a dollars in most places, where I live and considering we drive a car that gets over 35 mph, and we don't drive very often, that's pretty damn good. Another Trump lie is that gas is higher than it's ever been. I remember one. year when we paid over 4 bucks a gallon in the South, while traveling to visit family in NJ. It was due to a shortage. I don't recall the year, most likely it was in the 80s, but gas has been higher plenty of times, plus one must consider over all inflation not just the price of one thing. Inflation is down to 2.5%, which is about where it's supposed to be, but sadly too many people don't understand very basic economics and they believe the shit that comes out of the mouths of Trump and Vance.

 

[Elixir]

MAGAs might believe that, but rational people don't. Nevertheless, Kamala Harris is to the left of most Democrats.

Good.

You have that much faith in the Derec Poll?

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

When Adolph the Orange won the electoral vote but lost by millions of popular votes in 2016 I saw lots of Trump signage. I'm not seeing that now. I'm seeing much more Harris signage, particularly in the yards of more affluent homeowners. I do believe Harris will win the electoral vote. The Orange Crybaby manchild is gonna need a lot of extra diapers.

But we may not have to wait for that if he keeps up the incendiary insults. Someone is going to succeed in killing him. Is it me or does anyone else notice he has lost a lot of steam? I think he senses a change and doesn't want to be shot. Maybe his advisors are getting through to his child brain.

 

[Politesse]

Gasoline is actually less than 3 bucks a dollars in most places,

Holy Jesus, really? It's nearly double that here.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Gasoline is actually less than 3 bucks a dollars in most places,

Holy Jesus, really? It's nearly double that here.

It's $3.43 around here. When I was travelling it was under $3.00. If I want 300 miles of travel I need ten gallons. My wife fills her Tesla for 300 miles for $9.00. Do the math.

 

[Politesse]

That does explain why Americans are so dumb about petroleum use, if it's still so cheap for them. I wonder how people would react if they truly achieved the laissez-faire economy so many idealize and half of our industries collapsed overnight for lack of government subsidies and tax games.

 

[Derec]

Gasoline is actually less than 3 bucks a dollars in most places,

Holy Jesus, really? It's nearly double that here.

Really. Georgia has some of the cheapest gas in the US.

 

[Terrell]

I don't know. I think this is pretty close to a coin-flip election, and if either side is favored, then it's slight. My money is that the tipping point state is decided by less than 2% of the votes.

 

[ZiprHead]

This is bullshit. Gas prices used to increase forty cents a gallon Friday morning. Catch the people cashing their paychecks and doing their weekly fill up.

Then the increase came on Thursday afternoons.

Now it comes on Wednesdays.

The collusion cannot be more clear.

 

[SLD]

One of the reasons I can be so pessimistic is the continued grip that religious faith seems to have on this country. Awhile back I had hopes that growing numbers of freethinkers would transform our country and bring in a more progressive age. Sadly it has not come to be. Maybe it’s just me living in the Bible Belt, but I suspect that outside of the major cities in PA and MI, you’d run into much the same. Despite the growing numbers of nones, evangelicals continue to be largely unaffected. The ranks of the nones come from more traditional Christian Protestant backgrounds. Coupled with the Catholic anti abortion views, and you have a recipe for Republican authoritarianism to win. Fucking Catholic church will vote for the KKK who’d hang them all as long as they oppose abortion.

Last night at the Trump rally, errrrr, Alabama Georgia game, I saw a hat that said, “Jesus is my King. Trump is my President.” I was disgusted. That sums it up. It’s all about religion and its poisonous grip on America and its politics. I fear it will dominate our discourse for decades more. Fuck religion. It is destroying us.

 

[ideologyhunter]

Someone tell me what drug the Trump rally crowds are into. Here's Trump on Sat., Sept. 7, at a rally in Wisconsin:

"Kamala supports states being able to take minor children and perform sex change operations. Can you imagine, you're a parent and your son leaves the house, and you say, 'Jimmy, I love you so much. Go have a good day in school. And your son comes back with a brutal operation. Can you even imagine this? What the hell is wrong with our country?"

I'd like to think that at least one or two couples left the rally, and on the way home, started talking about that claim. "Joe, you know what he said about kids getting sex changes, during the school day?"
"Did he say that?"
"You don't remember? The stuff about Jimmy coming home from school, and he's now a girl?"
"Okay, yeah. What about it?"
"Well, I'm just thinking about that. Do you think it's possible -- hear me out -- that Trump is legit crazy, and both of us have shit for brains?"

To do list: copy the Trump quote paragraph on a postcard and send it to folks who maybe haven't heard how bizarre Trump has become.

 

[SLD]

Someone tell me what drug the Trump rally crowds are into. Here's Trump on Sat., Sept. 7, at a rally in Wisconsin:

"Kamala supports states being able to take minor children and perform sex change operations. Can you imagine, you're a parent and your son leaves the house, and you say, 'Jimmy, I love you so much. Go have a good day in school. And your son comes back with a brutal operation. Can you even imagine this? What the hell is wrong with our country?"

I'd like to think that at least one or two couples left the rally, and on the way home, started talking about that claim. "Joe, you know what he said about kids getting sex changes, during the school day?"
"Did he say that?"
"You don't remember? The stuff about Jimmy coming home from school, and he's now a girl?"
"Okay, yeah. What about it?"
"Well, I'm just thinking about that. Do you think it's possible -- hear me out -- that Trump is legit crazy, and both of us have shit for brains?"

To do list: copy the Trump quote paragraph on a postcard and send it to folks who maybe haven't heard how bizarre Trump has become.

Won’t work. That’s one that they think is perfectly rational.