Trump Will Likely Win

[Loren Pechtel]

You assume that where Harris landed on positions when she was one voice in a hundred representing the state of California is where she will land on positions when she is one voice of one representing the United States.

She also advocated left-wing positions when she ran for president in 2019. Things like banning fracking/offshore drilling and private health insurance. Now she is supporting spending plans that exceed even what Biden wanted to spend in his $3.5T plan. For example, he wanted to give away $3k per year per child, while she is boosting that to $6k in the first year.

Your turd keeps proposing stupid giveaways, she's just following along.

 

[Derec]

She also advocated left-wing positions when she ran for president in 2019. Things like banning fracking/offshore drilling and private health insurance. Now she is supporting spending plans that exceed even what Biden wanted to spend in his $3.5T plan. For example, he wanted to give away $3k per year per child, while she is boosting that to $6k in the first year.

Your turd keeps proposing stupid giveaways, she's just following along.

1. If you mean Trump, he is certainly not "my turd".
2. It is not exactly a testament to KH's leadership that she is just "following along" to what the other guy says.
3. The only thing where she followed Trump along was the boneheaded idea to not tax earnings from tips.
For the stuff I mentioned she is not following Trump:
- $6k is just increasing the amount that Biden wanted to give away in his B³. I guess you could call it Spendapalooza 2: Electric Boogaloo
- Banning fracking and offshore drilling or private health insurance are not Trumpian ideas. It was not Trump she was "following along" here, but Bernie and Warren.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Someone tell me what drug the Trump rally crowds are into. Here's Trump on Sat., Sept. 7, at a rally in Wisconsin:

"Kamala supports states being able to take minor children and perform sex change operations. Can you imagine, you're a parent and your son leaves the house, and you say, 'Jimmy, I love you so much. Go have a good day in school. And your son comes back with a brutal operation. Can you even imagine this? What the hell is wrong with our country?"

I'd like to think that at least one or two couples left the rally, and on the way home, started talking about that claim. "Joe, you know what he said about kids getting sex changes, during the school day?"
"Did he say that?"
"You don't remember? The stuff about Jimmy coming home from school, and he's now a girl?"
"Okay, yeah. What about it?"
"Well, I'm just thinking about that. Do you think it's possible -- hear me out -- that Trump is legit crazy, and both of us have shit for brains?"

To do list: copy the Trump quote paragraph on a postcard and send it to folks who maybe haven't heard how bizarre Trump has become.

Won’t work. That’s one that they think is perfectly rational.

The mob mentality must be similar to the Salem Witch Trials, which we know in retrospect were shameful. Unfortunately that's the present mentality with Orangemania. The rational aspects of many persons' neurology seem to be nonoperational.

 

[SLD]

Pennsylvania General Election, September 2024 – Trafalgar Group

www.thetrafalgargroup.org

A latest Trafalgar poll on Pennsylvania, showing Trump ahead by 2.5%. That’s actually a pretty good comfortable margin. Trafalgar polling has been accused of being pro Trump, but in 2016 they were accurately predicting Trump’s win, and they were closer in 2020 than a lot of other polls.

I want her to win, but I am very, very skeptical that she will.

 

[Elixir]

Pennsylvania General Election, September 2024 – Trafalgar Group

www.thetrafalgargroup.org

A latest Trafalgar poll on Pennsylvania, showing Trump ahead by 2.5%. That’s actually a pretty good comfortable margin. Trafalgar polling has been accused of being pro Trump, but in 2016 they were accurately predicting Trump’s win, and they were closer in 2020 than a lot of other polls.

I want her to win, but I am very, very skeptical that she will.

Yup. It's a dire situation unless there are a lot of "sleeper" trump haters within the ranks of morons.
I fear that Vance will prevail in tonight's debate, on the back of another tsunami of lies.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Pennsylvania General Election, September 2024 – Trafalgar Group

www.thetrafalgargroup.org

A latest Trafalgar poll on Pennsylvania, showing Trump ahead by 2.5%. That’s actually a pretty good comfortable margin. Trafalgar polling has been accused of being pro Trump, but in 2016 they were accurately predicting Trump’s win, and they were closer in 2020 than a lot of other polls.

I want her to win, but I am very, very skeptical that she will.

Trafalgargroup had Trump winning in PA in 2020, polling him 1 to 2 pts ahead of Biden. Also Trump winning in Michigan by 2 pts, and Wisconsin as a tie. Beacon Research was the only polling company that could be considered accurate for that state. And they had Trump winning Arizona. They missed, 4 for 4.

 

[Ford]

Pennsylvania General Election, September 2024 – Trafalgar Group

www.thetrafalgargroup.org

A latest Trafalgar poll on Pennsylvania, showing Trump ahead by 2.5%. That’s actually a pretty good comfortable margin. Trafalgar polling has been accused of being pro Trump, but in 2016 they were accurately predicting Trump’s win, and they were closer in 2020 than a lot of other polls.

I want her to win, but I am very, very skeptical that she will.

Yup. It's a dire situation unless there are a lot of "sleeper" trump haters within the ranks of morons.
I fear that Vance will prevail in tonight's debate, on the back of another tsunami of lies.

I'm pretty well certain that tonight's debate won't change any minds. I'm more interested in seeing what effect Helene will have. Will the destruction in NC interrupt in person voting? Will the Biden/Harris administration's response (which seems to be more than appropriate) overcome the relentless fire hose of lies from Trump? Will the residents in affected areas grasp that sometimes the federal government can be a lifeline in times of emergency? Or will they wait for their god-king to throw them a roll of paper towels and fly away on his private jet?

 

[Elixir]

Will the Biden/Harris administration's response (which seems to be more than appropriate) overcome the relentless fire hose of lies from Trump?

My post to which you replied, would say probably not.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Pennsylvania General Election, September 2024 – Trafalgar Group

www.thetrafalgargroup.org

A latest Trafalgar poll on Pennsylvania, showing Trump ahead by 2.5%. That’s actually a pretty good comfortable margin. Trafalgar polling has been accused of being pro Trump, but in 2016 they were accurately predicting Trump’s win, and they were closer in 2020 than a lot of other polls.

I want her to win, but I am very, very skeptical that she will.

Yup. It's a dire situation unless there are a lot of "sleeper" trump haters within the ranks of morons.
I fear that Vance will prevail in tonight's debate, on the back of another tsunami of lies.

I'm pretty well certain that tonight's debate won't change any minds. I'm more interested in seeing what effect Helene will have. Will the destruction in NC interrupt in person voting? Will the Biden/Harris administration's response (which seems to be more than appropriate) overcome the relentless fire hose of lies from Trump? Will the residents in affected areas grasp that sometimes the federal government can be a lifeline in times of emergency? Or will they wait for their god-king to throw them a roll of paper towels and fly away on his private jet?

I can only imagine that we'll learn in SC and NC and TN, vulnerable pets are being eaten by Haitians. Gov. Kemp called Trump begging to "Save our pets, me boy!"

 

[rousseau]

FiveThirtyEight has Harris with a slim edge - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/.

But that edge is negligible so it's basically a coin toss.

 

[Spacetime Inhabitant]

In regard to the VP debate, the microphones won't be off, unlike with Trump's debates against Biden and Harris. This of course means that they think Trump was a child who needed parental supervision.

 

[Shadowy Man]

In regard to the VP debate, the microphones won't be off, unlike with Trump's debates against Biden and Harris. This of course means that they think Trump was a child who needed parental supervision.

Though the moderators did mute their microphones when they kept talking and the moderators wanted to move on to the next subject.

 

[rousseau]

From Adam Tooze' Substack article today on swing states:

Three theories of "swing states". Or the puzzle of why and how 150,000 American voters will decide all our futures.

If that were the case, it would be no scandal. On the contrary it would be the logic of democracy in action. But that is not the kind of political contest that is going on in the USA today. The “scandal” of the US election is not that it is a titanic struggle for tens of millions of votes that will ultimately be decided by a fine margin. The scandal is that tens of millions of votes barely attract any attention at all. Only a few places matter and those places are determined by no obvious, larger-scale logic. Furthermore, their votes are often influenced by highly idiosyncratic local conditions. It is a few thousand voters, often in out of the way, “backwater” places, that decide the future of the USA and with it, the future of the world.

'The future of the world' is a hell of a thing to read in reference to American swing states.