Trump Will Likely Win

[Derec]

So polls have proven poor predictors in the last two cycles. In both 2016 and 2020 Trump performed better than the polls suggested. Hillary was the clear polling leader in 2016 - or so they told us.

The polls have problems, but they are overstated. 2016 election was an wobbler with Hillary favored by polls, but not decisively so. Nationwide polls saw her clearly ahead, and lo and behold, she did come out ahead in nationwide vote (but still <50%). State-by-state polls were less clear, and that was reflected in Nate Silver giving Hillary just over 70% chance of winning. That means just under 30% for Trump to win. Less than half, but high enough for the election outcome to be far from clear. Trump winning had the probability just under rolling a one or a two on a standard die. How confident would you be not to roll that?
That many pundits flunked probability and stats (or more likely never took it) and "told us" nonsense is not the fault of the polls.

In the end, i just don't see the enthusiasm for Harris enough to push her through in places like rural Pennsylvania and Michigan.

On the other hand, Trump is a far diminished candidate compared to 2016 or even 2020. He is now the feeble old man in the race, running against a relative spring chicken. And he is getting more unhinged almost by the day.
Kamala is way too left for the US electorate, and Trump may be pretty much the only Republican nominee she could win against, but that is the race we have in 2024.

Another factor is how really divided the left is - especially over Israel and Palestine.

True. Many Muslim 5th columnists tell pollsters that they want to vote for the rabidly anti-Israel Jill Stein.

I said on these boards that the purpose of this attack was to divide the American public - especially the left in swing states like Michigan with large minorities of Muslims.

I do not think Yahya Sinwar et al had American electoral politics in mind. But I do think dividing Israel from Arab states that Israel was started having better relations with was a big part of their calculus.

It's working. Many people in America support the rights of Palestinians and they are generally liberal democrats

They are not very "liberal" or "democratic" to support Hamas and Hezbollah. Or the theocracy in Iran.
This is the reality of "Michigan Muslims":

Nothing "liberal" or "democratic" here.

who are pissed at Biden/Harris for their support of Israel. This could have a HUGE impact in Michigan. That's why I think Trump will likely win.

We shall see. Best case scenario: Kamala wins despite losing Michigan Muslims and their far-left allies, marginalizing them as a force within the Democratic Party.

Another factor, mentioned above is the African-American vote. A poll today indicates that of Black voters under 50, 25% will vote for Trump. for Black men, the number is 28%. This is absurd.

Sadly, no. Democrats have focused so much on women's issues, they have neglected appealing to men.

And again, in key states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan it could hurt her.

As will her past support for banning fracking. That's why she should have picked Shapiro.

These races are all so fucking close.

Yupp. Which is why Yogi Berra is right: predictions are hard, especially about the future.

 

[ZiprHead]

I find it extremely unlikely that Trump will win. However, in the unlikely circumstance that he does, then it will be to the eternal shame of the United States. It will also be justification for the military to finally decide to honor their oath to protect the country from domestic enemies (Trump).

What, like overturn an election? An insurrection?

It's not an insurrection when the Left does it. Just ask Warlord Raz Simone, who was not even prosecuted for taking over and occupying US territory for several weeks with armed force.

You just cannot help it. You've just got to get your hobby horses in.

 

[ZiprHead]

Kamala is way too left for the US electorate

What makes her too left?

 

[laughing dog]

Sadly, no. Democrats have focused so much on women's issues, they have neglected appealing to men

I am a man and I find the Democrats focusing on issues that interest me. So what do you mean?

 

[Elixir]

Sadly, no. Democrats have focused so much on women's issues, they have neglected appealing to men.

The Men:

If Harris needs the racist vote, the misogynist vote or the idiot vote
(and I'm not saying she doesn't), she's in deep trouble.

 

[ideologyhunter]

Who will Miss Sassy vote for?

 

[thebeave]

Kamala is way too left for the US electorate

What makes her too left?

 

[Patooka]

Kamala is way too left for the US electorate

What makes her too left?

She's pro gun control and pro women's reproductive rights? /s

 

[Derec]

You just cannot help it. You've just got to get your hobby horses in.

I was just illustrating how it's never considered "insurrection" when a leftist does it, even though Spacetime Inhabitant was advocating for an insurrection if Trump wins.

 

[abaddon]

Kamala is way too left for the US electorate

What makes her too left?

"You've supported the Green New Deal, you've supported Medicare for All, you've supported legalizing marijuana."

Those are a few of the reasons I had wanted to vote for her in 2020. Now I get to.

for the video. Nice to be reminded of why Harris is reason to have a little bit of hope again.

 

[Derec]

What makes her too left?

She was ranked by GovTrack as one of the most left-wing Senators during her tenure. Only Jeff Merkley, Kristen Gillebrand, and, of course, Bernie Sanders were to her left. Yes, even Elizabeth Warren.
During the 2020 race, she also staked some far left positions, like banning fracking and offshore drilling as well as getting rid of private health insurance.

Why do you not think she is too far left?

 

[robnisch]

We could have this again!

 

[Shadowy Man]

View attachment 47840
We could have this again!

MAGA!

 

[thebeave]

Kamala is way too left for the US electorate

What makes her too left?

"You've supported the Green New Deal, you've supported Medicare for All, you've supported legalizing marijuana."

Those are a few of the reasons I had wanted to vote for her in 2020. Now I get to.

for the video. Nice to be reminded of why Harris is reason to have a little bit of hope again.

Nah. If she would have promised free ice cream and back rubs for all, then I'm in. You gotta stand your ground and fight for your rights there bud!

 

[Spacetime Inhabitant]

Using an interactive map, I figure it all boils down to Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Yes, your map does show the importance of Pennsylvania. Which is why she should have picked Shapiro and not Walz. Not only because of the former's "favorite son" status, but also because he would have helped moderate the ticket, since Kamala herself is so far left. Walz does not help her do that, nor is MN in any danger.

In what real world viewpoint is Kamala "far left"?

You just cannot help it. You've just got to get your hobby horses in.

I was just illustrating how it's never considered "insurrection" when a leftist does it, even though Spacetime Inhabitant was advocating for an insurrection if Trump wins.

Except that I'm not a leftist. Also I was not advocating for an insurrection, but the opposite - for the military to do their duty and act to prevent an insurrection.

 

[bilby]

Doesn’t matter what he says … burn down the constitution. He said that. Fucking bastard should be ineligible.

He IS ineligible. He won twice already - just ask him. Sorry, Don, but the 22nd amendment is clear...

 

[ZiprHead]

What makes her too left?

She was ranked by GovTrack as one of the most left-wing Senators during her tenure. Only Jeff Merkley, Kristen Gillebrand, and, of course, Bernie Sanders were to her left. Yes, even Elizabeth Warren.
During the 2020 race, she also staked some far left positions, like banning fracking and offshore drilling as well as getting rid of private health insurance.

Why do you not think she is too far left?

Okay, what are her positions that make her a leftist?

 

[Shadowy Man]

Doesn’t matter what he says … burn down the constitution. He said that. Fucking bastard should be ineligible.

He IS ineligible. He won twice already - just ask him. Sorry, Don, but the 22nd amendment is clear...

Some of us thought the 14th amendment is clear too, but with the current SCOTUS…

 

[Shadowy Man]

What makes her too left?

Why do you not think she is too far left?

The operative word there is “too”. If she were too far left for the electorate she wouldn’t be polling as high as she is and having as good a chance at electoral victory as she does.

So, by observation she is clearly not too far left.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Kamala is way too left for the US electorate

What makes her too left?

You assume that where Harris landed on positions when she was one voice in a hundred representing the state of California is where she will land on positions when she is one voice of one representing the United States. Senator, VP, and president are three different jobs that require her to conduct herself three different ways. Were Biden to have left office halfway through his term, Harris would have been obligated to finish what Joe started to the best of her ability, not shift to some hard left positions. To do so would have been disrespectful to Biden, the office of the president, and the voters who expected a Biden agenda.
She told you in the video who she is. We voters and the media take these candidates and drop them in slots on the liberal-conservative spectrum and say this is who this person is and this is how they will govern. While the first part of that statement may be largely correct, the second part is not as much in that the candidate knows they have to conform to the job and be mindful of who they represent.