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Will Biden drop out? Who replaces him?

thebeave said:
Say what you will about Trump's speech last night (the usual going off on tangents and the lies) but I didn't really see much in the way of dementia, or him losing his train of thought, non-sequitors, forgetting people's names, etc. like we do with Biden. He went on for about an hour and a half, both on script and off. I really don't understand where people are coming from (here and elsewhere) who say Biden's brain is fine and Trump is the one with dementia. What are they watching, and where are they getting their news from?
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Trump brags about passing a competency test, repeatedly. That is called a red flag. And Trump fucks up too. Trump is old, slow mover, has problems with slanted surfaces, can't manage a faltering teleprompter, screws up who he is talking about. Honestly, the performance gap between the two is not that wide.

The big difference is Biden looks old, while Trump promotes a more energetic old. Trump over the last few decades has fiercely protected hia image, so he goes about it a lot more than average, from his fake skin color to his ridiculous hair. But he seems to have enough energy to project that he has energy. He sounded tired last night from the clips I heard, but it was limited, so maybe not representative.

There is little evidence Biden is losing it, despite what a few in here have suggested. Biden appears to be mentally acute enough to manage the job, but he is struggling with physical part of it. Trump isn't remotely mentally fit for the job, not smart enough and sure the hell doesn't care about discharging his duties in the full faith of following the Constitution. January 6th still happened, and how he is getting away from his actions that led to it, well it is depressing as all heck
 
thebeave said:
Say what you will about Trump's speech last night (the usual going off on tangents and the lies) but I didn't really see much in the way of dementia, or him losing his train of thought, non-sequitors, forgetting people's names, etc. like we do with Biden. He went on for about an hour and a half, both on script and off. I really don't understand where people are coming from (here and elsewhere) who say Biden's brain is fine and Trump is the one with dementia. What are they watching, and where are they getting their news from?
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He went into his normal Gish gallop mode, pouring out a torrent of questionable claims, innuendo, and personal invective on whatever thought entered his head without any regard for truth. He didn't lose his train of thought, but that train wasn't running on any particular track. It was a stream of consciousness performance that revealed much about how he views reality. I found it painful to listen to, as did a lot of his other critics, but it was largely grammatical. The teleprompter did help to keep it coherent in some spots. I don't recall a lot of the paraphasia (so-called "fluent aphasia") symptoms that he is normally prone to, but his inability to focus on a subject and wrap it up in coherent thoughts does strike me as a mental impairment. As one commentator put it, he seemed to get bored by the material on his teleprompter, frequently going off script. He has given record-length convention rambles in the past, but this one was by far the longest. Some people simply walked out rather than wait for him to run down.
 
starwater said:
Biden looks more and more frail every time we see him. One bought of pneumonia will bring him down. IMO he does have the mental acuity during certain times of the day and there is no question the man is brilliant and can get things done. As Bill Maher said "It's looks like Grandpa's last Christmas." There is stellar younger talent in the democratic wings that can stand up to Trump and not fumble a debate. It has been suggested that 4 townhalls (in each region of the country) be conducted by Barack Obama and Bill Clinton to vet candidates and it be decided at the convention. A very democratic process.
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I’m not seeing anything democratic about Clinton and Obama, from the corporatist “New Democrat” wing of the Democratic Party, the betrayers of the legacy of the New Deal, conducting any vetting of anyone.
 
GenesisNemesis said:
I don't know why people are pretending to be doctors and diagnosing people without the qualifications. But OK.
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Some of us have qualifications to recognize certain disorders--for example, paraphasia. Trump is notorious for having trouble pronouncing words, which abaddon correctly referred to as phonemic paraphasia in post 449. I don't think anyone disputes the fact that the man suffers from personality disorders, but he does need to be examined and diagnosed by qualified specialists. I think that he is as reluctant as Biden to submit to such an examination.
 
Politesse said:
Jason Harvestdancer said:
Only hard right wing MAGA fanatics think there is anything wrong with Biden.
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I hope you just mean with respect to the dementia thing. Not like, that there is nothing at all wrong with Biden?
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There are a few Democrats who have some minor policy disagreements. The dementia thing is a right-wing smear campaign.
 
to put this all to an end. I suggest to prove he doesn't have dementia, we show Biden to the exit and see if he can find his way back on his own.
 
TV and credit cards said:
I don’t care if Biden has to be wheeled around like Captain Pike. I care about his mental acuity. If the Democrat leadership is speaking out publicly (and have likely already done so privately to no avail) that he should drop out, I trust they have more of an inside line of what is going on.
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I think that if the "Democrat leadership" was really worried about his mental acuity they would be speaking out that he should step down as President now. The fact that they are only asking him to step down as a candidate indicates to me that this is more about his ability to win an election and not his ability to perform as President.
 
A number of independent reports are circulating that Biden will withdraw from the race. If that happens, I believe he will release his delegates. He should then ask them to vote for Harris. They won’t have to, but I think the Dems need to get squarely behind her. Otherwise it will be a convention bloodbath and the party’s chances would be doomed. I think Andy Beshear would be a perfect veep for her.
 
pood said:
I’m not seeing anything democratic about Clinton and Obama,
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Except being democratically elected president twice each. How are they not democratic?
from the corporatist “New Democrat” wing of the Democratic Party, the betrayers of the legacy of the New Deal, conducting any vetting of anyone.
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So you want the likes of Bernie and AOC to conduct the townhalls and the vetting? Why do you think that would be more effective that letting two very respected, and still very popular ex-presidents do it? These two men enjoy broad popularity in the Democratic Party. The Squad and the Squad adjacent are only popular in one wing of the party.
 
laughing dog said:
Harry Truman dropped out and his pkacement lost.
LBJ dropped out and his replacement lost.
McGovern cowardly dropped his VP pick and he got trounced.

Doesn’t anyone in the Democratic Party lean history or from it?
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Yup. Two of Allan Lichtman's keys are Incumbency and Contest (lack of a contest for the nomination).

Until that disastrous first debate, Joe Biden had both of these keys, but he now risks losing one or both of them.
 
Derec said:
pood said:
I’m not seeing anything democratic about Clinton and Obama,
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Except being democratically elected president twice each. How are they not democratic?
from the corporatist “New Democrat” wing of the Democratic Party, the betrayers of the legacy of the New Deal, conducting any vetting of anyone.
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So you want the likes of Bernie and AOC to conduct the townhalls and the vetting? Why do you think that would be more effective that letting two very respected, and still very popular ex-presidents do it? These two men enjoy broad popularity in the Democratic Party. The Squad and the Squad adjacent are only popular in one wing of the party.
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I don’t want any town halls or vetting. That was Carville’s cockamamie idea.
 
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@aoc) • Instagram photos and videos
and
Congresswoman AOC Spills The Tea And Unloads on Democratic Cowards On Instagram Live - YouTube

She starts out by saying that she is currently in Puerto Rico, helping to install solar panels on and battery packs in the houses of "vulnerable" families who have been "failed" by the local electrical grid. Like people who depend on electrically-powered medical devices. She's also working on a $400 M grant to install solar panels on and battery packs in anyone's home (snipped from that YouTube video).

She then goes into a long ramble about what's happening with the Democratic Presidential nomination.

Here's a good summary: Peter Sterne on X: "In IG Live, @AOC says she doesn't know what's going to happen with Biden." / X and its following xweets.

She didn't want to question or attack the motives of anyone who wants JB to step down, but she noticed that the political class - pundits, media, donors, org leaders - started to waver because of poor polling. She said that it would have been better to have such a discussion a year ago, when it would have been less troublesome. Also that such people don't just want JB replaced, but also Kamala Harris.

Also attacking people who make anti-Biden statements while remaining anonymous.

She has been in rooms with some anti-JB people and she has asked them to "game out your actual plan for me", asking about the risks of the Supreme Court deciding on some election litigation.

She also says that her community does not have the option to lose, because it is the sort of community whose people are likely to be deported and to be sent to jails like Rikers Island.
 
She also mentioned how her vote share rose over her 4 primary elections. The third one was uncontested, but she is correct about the contested ones, despite "disinformation campaigns" from both the right and the left.
  • 2018: AOC 56.7% Joe Crowley 43.3%
  • 2020: AOC 74.4% MCC 18.1% others 5.0% 2.2% 0.2%
  • 2022: AOC (unchallenged)
  • 2024: AOC 82.1% Marty Dolan 17.9%
She then notes that the people she talks to, fellow politicians, say "my donor this, my donor that" instead of "my voters this, my voters that".

Some people call her a "neolib sellout careerist", but as she says, there are much more lucrative ways than what she is doing. She didn't mention Kyrsten Sinema, a very obvious example of such a sellout.

She doesn't want the likes of Clarence Thomas deciding this election, because it has happened before, back in 2000. There is some risk of that, because some Republican Attorneys General are planning to obstruct attempts to replace JB on their states' ballots.

She calls herself a "polling skeptic", using a word that she rarely uses, though she insists that she is not a "data denialist". In her first election, a poll of likely voters had her down by 35%, but she won by 13%. In this election, her campaign's internal poll numbers were double digits down from the number she actually won by: 64%.

Then saying that she continues to support JB even though he has done some things that she finds "morally horrific". "Complexity is the job", she says.

To "all you folks who are coconut pilled in the comments", she says "buckle up!"

"Coconut pilled"? Supporters of Kamala Harris, it seems.

I must say that I'm disappointed that AOC didn't mention Allan Lichtman's Keys to the Presidency.
 
AOC also proposed another reason that Joe Biden didn't do well in that debate. If he was speaking to some big audience, he'd get a lot of enthusiasm from how his audience responds, like he did in appearances since that debate. But in that debate, it was only him, Donald Trump, and the two moderators, Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, without any audience.
 
lpetrich said:
AOC also proposed another reason that Joe Biden didn't do well in that debate. If he was speaking to some big audience, he'd get a lot of enthusiasm from how his audience responds, like he did in appearances since that debate. But in that debate, it was only him, Donald Trump, and the two moderators, Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, without any audience.
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Like he didn’t know that going in.
 
lpetrich said:
AOC also proposed another reason that Joe Biden didn't do well in that debate. If he was speaking to some big audience, he'd get a lot of enthusiasm from how his audience responds, like he did in appearances since that debate.
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Before the debate, it was thought that Trump would be harmed more by the lack of a live studio audience.
And the rules for the debate were agreed by both teams, and it was most likely the Biden team who wanted there to be no audience, not Trump's. To now use the lack of an audience as an excuse for his poor performance is pretty gauche.

Another thing: His appearances after the debate were mostly teleprompter speeches. Non teleprompter events like interviews he did perform too brilliantly in either.
 
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