Trump Will Likely Win

[Shadowy Man]

Yeah. I once said that the only way to defeat Trump is to let him win. And then watch him utterly fail.

Wouldn't work because his supporters don't respond to facts. Any actual failure will either be declared a non-failure or be blamed on the Democrats.

 

[Axulus]

Yeah. I once said that the only way to defeat Trump is to let him win. And then watch him utterly fail.

Wouldn't work because his supporters don't respond to facts. Any actual failure will either be declared a non-failure or be blamed on the Democrats.

Very true. He utterly failed in his first term to pass a comprehensive border bill and build the wall, and blamed his failure on democrats despite controlling both the house and senate his first two years, as one example.

 

[ZiprHead]

Not looking good at all

1. Are Republican Pollsters Flooding the Zone?​

Yes. Absolutely. I have push notifications set up for all of the polling aggregator accounts, and my phone is constantly lighting up with alerts about new polls from outfits like Trafalgar, OnMessage, Patriot Polling, and American Greatness.

Simon Rosenberg of the Hopium Chronicles has been tracking this trend since 2022. On October 5th, he wrote:

The red wavers stepped up their activity this past week, releasing at least 20 polls across the battlegrounds. It’s a sign that they are worried about the public polling in both the Presidential and the Senate, and have dramatically escalated their efforts to push the polling averages to the right and make the election look redder than it is.

These polls are, of course, consistently a few points more favorable to Trump — particularly in the battleground states. That drumbeat continued over the last couple of weeks. Those claiming the GOP is dumping out a bunch of partisan polls are not imagining things.

Are a Flood of GOP Polls Skewing the Polling Averages?

The story is a little more complicated than most people would have you believe

www.messageboxnews.com

 

[LoAmmo]

These polls are, of course, consistently a few points more favorable to Trump — particularly in the battleground states. That drumbeat continued over the last couple of weeks. Those claiming the GOP is dumping out a bunch of partisan polls are not imagining things.

Good.

If anything, this trend would logically drive twin consequences:

Some non-zero number of Republicans will figure Trump has this one in the bag and thus not bust their ass getting to the polls, “since clearly Trump’s the winner,” while some non-zero number of Democrats do, in response, bust their ass getting to the polls, “just in case.”

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Not looking good at all

1. Are Republican Pollsters Flooding the Zone?​

Yes. Absolutely. I have push notifications set up for all of the polling aggregator accounts, and my phone is constantly lighting up with alerts about new polls from outfits like Trafalgar, OnMessage, Patriot Polling, and American Greatness.

Simon Rosenberg of the Hopium Chronicles has been tracking this trend since 2022. On October 5th, he wrote:

The red wavers stepped up their activity this past week, releasing at least 20 polls across the battlegrounds. It’s a sign that they are worried about the public polling in both the Presidential and the Senate, and have dramatically escalated their efforts to push the polling averages to the right and make the election look redder than it is.

These polls are, of course, consistently a few points more favorable to Trump — particularly in the battleground states. That drumbeat continued over the last couple of weeks. Those claiming the GOP is dumping out a bunch of partisan polls are not imagining things.

Are a Flood of GOP Polls Skewing the Polling Averages?

The story is a little more complicated than most people would have you believe

www.messageboxnews.com

The good thing we have is math. Math makes one thing a bit easier to detect, the overall popular vote.

The GOP has three populous states that vote for it, Texas, Florida, and Georgia. Other Battleground States are there, but victory margins in them are small, and while reduce the Dems overall popular vote take, it isn't by much.

So we have Dems with California, New York, and Illinois. In 2020 , the Dems had a difference of 5 million votes in California alone! Illinois and New York provided 3 million more votes on the margin. So no other states counted for the Democrats, they have an 8 million margin.

For the GOP, Florida has been becoming more and more solid, but not greatly so. A solid 6 or 7 point win would only gain him 500,000 or so votes. Texas is the big one, and the GOP has been bleeding votes in that state for so long, they've needed to try and pass laws to make voting harder. In 2020, Trump won the state by only 600,000 votes. George W. Bush won by 1.7 million in '04. In 2004, W also had near 1 million votes in NC and and GA, where as Trump had about 40,000 net. That 2.7 net in TX, NC, and GA was larger than W's national popular vote win. And um... Virginia and Colorado are solidly blue at the moment.

So to do the calculations, if California, Illinois, New York aren't looking weaker and Trump is looking to win GA and NC by 1/4 of margins W was winning in '04, would be impossible for Trump to win the popular vote without a sizable win in some of the Battleground states. Trump is barely winning in the large red states. The GOP has lost more red states (and by a sizable margin) than the Dems have lost blue states.

So unless something weird happens, we can already call the Popular Vote win for VP Harris.

 

[Shadowy Man]

So unless something weird happens, we can already call the Popular Vote win for VP Harris.

Who cares? It means essentially nothing.

 

[Elixir]

So unless something weird happens, we can already call the Popular Vote win for VP Harris.

Who cares? It means essentially nothing.

If Harris gets more than 50% of the popular vote it will mean something.
It probably won’t mean she won the presidency, but it would mean something.

 

[TomC]

So unless something weird happens, we can already call the Popular Vote win for VP Harris.

Who cares? It means essentially nothing.

If Harris gets more than 50% of the popular vote it will mean something.
It probably won’t mean she won the presidency, but it would mean something.

It will mean that, here in the USA, The Will of the People can be overruled by the super rich and foreign powers.
Tom

 

[bilby]

So unless something weird happens, we can already call the Popular Vote win for VP Harris.

Who cares? It means essentially nothing.

If Harris gets more than 50% of the popular vote it will mean something.
It probably won’t mean she won the presidency, but it would mean something.

It will mean that, here in the USA, The Will of the People can be overruled by the super rich and foreign powers.
Tom

So, the USA is still working as designed then?

 

[pood]

So unless something weird happens, we can already call the Popular Vote win for VP Harris.

Who cares? It means essentially nothing.

If Harris gets more than 50% of the popular vote it will mean something.
It probably won’t mean she won the presidency, but it would mean something.

It will mean that, here in the USA, The Will of the People can be overruled by the super rich and foreign powers.
Tom

So, the USA is still working as designed then?

That’s just it. The U.S. was designed not as a democracy but as a republic, to serve the interests of propertied white men.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

So unless something weird happens, we can already call the Popular Vote win for VP Harris.

Who cares? It means essentially nothing.

It matters because it provides us a watermark to be able to judge how far off polls could be. If a poll says Trump has a 4 pt lead nationally... you get to get a couple scoops of salt with localized polling from them.

 

[pood]

It’s believed that early voting will benefit Harris, and early voting has been way up. In Georgie some 300,000 people voted on the first day of early voting, vs. about 135,000 in that state in both 2016 and 2020.

 

[Politesse]

So unless something weird happens, we can already call the Popular Vote win for VP Harris.

Who cares? It means essentially nothing.

If Harris gets more than 50% of the popular vote it will mean something.
It probably won’t mean she won the presidency, but it would mean something.

It means nothing unless people act to correct the undemocratic outcome we keep getting election after election. And the "left" in this country has so little spine it's barely Left at all, so I wouldn't hold your breath.

 

[Politesse]

So unless something weird happens, we can already call the Popular Vote win for VP Harris.

Who cares? It means essentially nothing.

If Harris gets more than 50% of the popular vote it will mean something.
It probably won’t mean she won the presidency, but it would mean something.

It will mean that, here in the USA, The Will of the People can be overruled by the super rich and foreign powers.
Tom

So, the USA is still working as designed then?

That’s just it. The U.S. was designed not as a democracy but as a republic, to serve the interests of propertied white men.

Now, now. That's all part of the democracy. They know best what their vassals, wives, livestock, and fields need.

 

[LoAmmo]

So unless something weird happens, we can already call the Popular Vote win for VP Harris.

Who cares? It means essentially nothing.

If Harris gets more than 50% of the popular vote it will mean something.
It probably won’t mean she won the presidency, but it would mean something.

It would mean about as much as being able to say that your football team had more passing yards, more rushing yards, and more first downs than the team that beat you 37-27.

That rounds up to…nothing.

 

[Elixir]

So unless something weird happens, we can already call the Popular Vote win for VP Harris.

Who cares? It means essentially nothing.

If Harris gets more than 50% of the popular vote it will mean something.
It probably won’t mean she won the presidency, but it would mean something.

It would mean about as much as being able to say that your football team had more passing yards, more rushing yards, and more first downs than the team that beat you 37-27.

That rounds up to…nothing.

Disagree. At that hypothetical point the only possible remedies will be actions taken by The People, and motivation will be key.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

So unless something weird happens, we can already call the Popular Vote win for VP Harris.

Who cares? It means essentially nothing.

If Harris gets more than 50% of the popular vote it will mean something.
It probably won’t mean she won the presidency, but it would mean something.

It means nothing unless people act to correct the undemocratic outcome we keep getting election after election. And the "left" in this country has so little spine it's barely Left at all, so I wouldn't hold your breath.

I have a better shot at sleeping with *insert whomever that I'm never going to sleep with* than the US does at amending away the Constitution, and it has nothing to do with my desire for either of these things. If both parties don't agree, you aren't getting an Amendment. And the GOP isn't giving up the Electoral College.

 

[bilby]

So unless something weird happens, we can already call the Popular Vote win for VP Harris.

Who cares? It means essentially nothing.

If Harris gets more than 50% of the popular vote it will mean something.
It probably won’t mean she won the presidency, but it would mean something.

It will mean that, here in the USA, The Will of the People can be overruled by the super rich and foreign powers.
Tom

So, the USA is still working as designed then?

That’s just it. The U.S. was designed not as a democracy but as a republic, to serve the interests of propertied white and/or orange men.

FTFY.