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Trump Will Likely Win
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Axulus
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Very true. He utterly failed in his first term to pass a comprehensive border bill and build the wall, and blamed his failure on democrats despite controlling both the house and senate his first two years, as one example.
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Are a Flood of GOP Polls Skewing the Polling Averages?
The story is a little more complicated than most people would have you believe
www.messageboxnews.com
LoAmmo
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Good.
If anything, this trend would logically drive twin consequences:
Some non-zero number of Republicans will figure Trump has this one in the bag and thus not bust their ass getting to the polls, “since clearly Trump’s the winner,” while some non-zero number of Democrats do, in response, bust their ass getting to the polls, “just in case.”
Jimmy Higgins
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The good thing we have is math. Math makes one thing a bit easier to detect, the overall popular vote.
Are a Flood of GOP Polls Skewing the Polling Averages?
The story is a little more complicated than most people would have you believe
The GOP has three populous states that vote for it, Texas, Florida, and Georgia. Other Battleground States are there, but victory margins in them are small, and while reduce the Dems overall popular vote take, it isn't by much.
So we have Dems with California, New York, and Illinois. In 2020 , the Dems had a difference of 5 million votes in California alone! Illinois and New York provided 3 million more votes on the margin. So no other states counted for the Democrats, they have an 8 million margin.
For the GOP, Florida has been becoming more and more solid, but not greatly so. A solid 6 or 7 point win would only gain him 500,000 or so votes. Texas is the big one, and the GOP has been bleeding votes in that state for so long, they've needed to try and pass laws to make voting harder. In 2020, Trump won the state by only 600,000 votes. George W. Bush won by 1.7 million in '04. In 2004, W also had near 1 million votes in NC and and GA, where as Trump had about 40,000 net. That 2.7 net in TX, NC, and GA was larger than W's national popular vote win. And um... Virginia and Colorado are solidly blue at the moment.
So to do the calculations, if California, Illinois, New York aren't looking weaker and Trump is looking to win GA and NC by 1/4 of margins W was winning in '04, would be impossible for Trump to win the popular vote without a sizable win in some of the Battleground states. Trump is barely winning in the large red states. The GOP has lost more red states (and by a sizable margin) than the Dems have lost blue states.
So unless something weird happens, we can already call the Popular Vote win for VP Harris.
Shadowy Man
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Who cares? It means essentially nothing.
Elixir
Made in America
If Harris gets more than 50% of the popular vote it will mean something.
It probably won’t mean she won the presidency, but it would mean something.
TomC
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It will mean that, here in the USA, The Will of the People can be overruled by the super rich and foreign powers.
Tom
bilby
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So, the USA is still working as designed then?
pood
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That’s just it. The U.S. was designed not as a democracy but as a republic, to serve the interests of propertied white men.
Jimmy Higgins
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It matters because it provides us a watermark to be able to judge how far off polls could be. If a poll says Trump has a 4 pt lead nationally... you get to get a couple scoops of salt with localized polling from them.
Politesse
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It means nothing unless people act to correct the undemocratic outcome we keep getting election after election. And the "left" in this country has so little spine it's barely Left at all, so I wouldn't hold your breath.
Politesse
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Now, now. That's all part of the democracy. They know best what their vassals, wives, livestock, and fields need.
LoAmmo
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It would mean about as much as being able to say that your football team had more passing yards, more rushing yards, and more first downs than the team that beat you 37-27.
That rounds up to…nothing.
Elixir
Made in America
Disagree. At that hypothetical point the only possible remedies will be actions taken by The People, and motivation will be key.
Jimmy Higgins
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I have a better shot at sleeping with *insert whomever that I'm never going to sleep with* than the US does at amending away the Constitution, and it has nothing to do with my desire for either of these things. If both parties don't agree, you aren't getting an Amendment. And the GOP isn't giving up the Electoral College.
bilby
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FTFY.
southernhybrid
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That was true in the past, but based on what I've read in the AJC etc. Trump has been pushing his cult supporters to vote early, so I'm not sure if early voting is helping Harris or not.
Plus, sadly, a good percentage of young men, including young Black and Latino men are voting for Trump. They are delusional. They think he's real macho.
I read an article that a lot of Americans don't want a female president. It was very depressing to read the insane stereotypes about women. Several said that women get too moody when they are premenstrual. Harris if well past menopause age, so what the fuck has that stupid stereotype do with her. Others said women were too emotional. WTF. Men are too emotional when it comes to violent reactions etc. No, not all men, but if we are going to make stereotypic, I'll take a compassion, caring one over an angry, vengeful one. The article mentions all of th e countries who have had successful female leaders, but apparently, the US remains so sexist that this might prevent Harris from winning. Even women were making these claims. I might share the article if I have the time and motivation to find it again. Sad.
I also read a piece this morning that said Jill Stein might give the election to Trump. Even her family has begged her to step down, but she hates the other two parties and somehow seems to think she can win or doesn't care if her percentage of votes help Trump win. Republicans have been helping Stein because they think that will help Trump, as more liberals will vote for her, as Harris isn't far enough to the left for them.
This is very depressing to me. We will never have a president who pleases everyone and people who can't vote for the better of the two choices piss me off. Or if they are negative, they can refer to it as the lesser of two evils. Damn fools.
We have people posting here that claim Harris is too far left and people also saying she isn't far left enough. Again, there is no reality, only perception.
pood
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Tragically, you may be right. Yesterday, the orange buffoon was blabbing about how big Arnold Palmer’s penis was, and how he was “all man,” adding something to the effect of “with all due respect to the ladies.” And his idiot horde of drooling fans cheered wildly. Arnold Palmer’s penis. From a guy running for president. of. the. United. States. FFS. It seems in 2016 Hillary was sunk by a hidden misogynist vote. In particular, the so-called “Bernie Bros” who voted for him in the primaries over Hillary then voted for Trump in the general, and it’s believed that this helped him carry Michigan at least.